QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSFT

Price

Price, valuation, and the composite score on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.

Price

Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.

Close 2026-06-09

Daily closes. Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.

EarningsMaterial event

What it's worth (estimated)

A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $403.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.

12-month· primaryfair

$477.60consensus

Range $338.26 – $544.09

vs price: -16% below

Method agreement 48/100 · 7 methods

No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.

3-yearinexpensive

$699.41consensus

Range $479.82 – $777.21

vs price: -42% below

Method agreement 59/100 · 6 methods

Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.

5-yearinexpensive

$987.33consensus

Range $594.54 – $1061.84

vs price: -59% below

Method agreement 57/100 · 6 methods

Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.

By method

Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.

Method	Horizon	Est. price	Multiple	Per-share input	EPS source	Conf.
Mgmt guidance	12M	$91.70	31.8	2.88	Mgmt	48
Peer P/FCF	12M	$323.71	33.1	9.77	TTM	48
Peer P/E	12M	$534.89	31.8	16.80	TTM	48
Peer P/S	12M	$352.81	8.7	40.73	TTM	48
PEG	12M	$474.66	28.3	16.80	TTM	48
Own P/E history	12M	$560.21	33.3	16.80	TTM	48
triangulated	12M	$553.29	31.8	17.38	Triangulated	48
Mgmt guidance	3Y	$136.90	31.8	4.30	Mgmt(prov.)	59
Peer P/FCF	3Y	$411.17	33.1	12.41	Hist. CAGR(prov.)	59
Peer P/E	3Y	$798.59	31.8	25.08	Analyst	59
Peer P/S	3Y	$685.76	8.7	79.16	Analyst	59
PEG	3Y	$708.67	28.3	25.08	Analyst	59
Own P/E history	3Y	$836.40	33.3	25.08	Analyst	59
Mgmt guidance	5Y	$178.83	31.8	5.62	Mgmt(prov.)	57
Peer P/FCF	5Y	$482.24	33.1	14.56	Hist. CAGR(prov.)	57
Peer P/E	5Y	$1043.20	31.8	32.77	Analyst	57
Peer P/S	5Y	$1068.05	8.7	123.29	Analyst	57
PEG	5Y	$925.72	28.3	32.77	Analyst	57
Own P/E history	5Y	$1092.58	33.3	32.77	Analyst	57

Composite score history

Daily snapshots of the composite. Zero is the dotted line. Above it leans positive.

60 snapshots

P/E history

Monthly trailing P/E with quartile reference lines.

71 monthly points available

Coming next

Composite score history currently shows a rolling 60-day window. We're extending it back through full coverage and adding a “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay (what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed).

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.