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QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORLY

Factors

The full factor breakdown (the numbers behind each rank). The overview page shows the same reads in short form; this is the depth.

Factor signals

Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a plain-language read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.

Recent financial performance
weak

Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).

23th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
The numbers
bonus
0
dir share
1
slope norm
-0.4406
Earnings quality
fragile

Over the trailing year it converted 1.17x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).

23th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
The numbers
ttm ni
2603.91
ttm cfo
3039.79
Macro sensitivity

Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.

  • real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.β -0.08 · R² 0.05

Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity (low R² over the window).

Management & capital allocation
volatile

5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).

30th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
The numbers
n events
5
raw activity
0.9171
directional rank
0.9964
directional status
capital_friendly

Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-09.

Earnings setup & market context

The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.

Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
bullish strong18 analysts, 81% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions

EPS estimate $0.86 → $0.86 (-0.1% / 30d). 7 raised, 2 cut, 18 covering analysts.

Rating actions

0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 81% of analysts rate Buy.

Material events

1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.

Sector context
Intermediate · Weekly
Sector phase: consumer discretionary is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.
headwind-7.6%sector vs S&P 500, 60d

via XLY

Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.

Full consumer discretionary context →All sectors →

AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
HeatingManiaSquallCrisisEarnings →Mood ↑
SteadyE -0.09 · M +0.18
Single-axisFEARz -2.20

Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.

Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-09.