QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORLY
Price
Price, valuation, and the composite score on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $89.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
By method
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $57.69 | 18.0 | 3.20 | Mgmt | 50 |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $56.16 | 13.6 | 4.70 | TTM | 50 |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $42.50 | 18.7 | 2.27 | TTM | 50 |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $55.17 | 18.0 | 3.06 | TTM | 50 |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $42.02 | 2.1 | 20.42 | TTM | 50 |
| PEG | 12M | $124.87 | 40.8 | 3.06 | TTM | 50 |
| triangulated | 12M | $55.91 | 18.0 | 3.10 | Triangulated | 50 |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $79.57 | 18.0 | 4.41 | Mgmt(prov.) | 43 |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $32.67 | 18.7 | 1.75 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | 43 |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $76.09 | 18.0 | 4.22 | Analyst | 43 |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $57.38 | 2.1 | 27.89 | Analyst | 43 |
| PEG | 3Y | $172.24 | 40.8 | 4.22 | Analyst | 43 |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $98.60 | 18.0 | 5.47 | Mgmt(prov.) | 39 |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $27.41 | 18.7 | 1.46 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | 39 |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $94.29 | 18.0 | 5.23 | Analyst | 39 |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $70.63 | 2.1 | 34.33 | Analyst | 39 |
| PEG | 5Y | $213.42 | 40.8 | 5.23 | Analyst | 39 |
Composite score history
Daily snapshots of the composite. Zero is the dotted line. Above it leans positive.
P/E history
Monthly trailing P/E with quartile reference lines.
Composite score history currently shows a rolling 60-day window. We're extending it back through full coverage and adding a “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay (what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed).
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.