ABNB
AirbnbNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ABNB has a mixed analyst signal with a composite score of -3.6 and a medium confidence level of 73.5. The score is influenced by several factors, including an unfavorable outlook if next-quarter guidance is cut and potential negative impacts from macroeconomic conditions such as growth and rates reversals. The sector score is low at 12.3, indicating challenges within the consumer discretionary sector. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.53
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.16 (-0.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 29 covering analysts.
2 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.7% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Accelerate revenue growthgrowthbehind4% progress
5/7: “For 2026, we are raising our guidance and now expect year-over-year revenue growth to accelerate to low to mid teens.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 is set to accelerate to low to mid teens. However, Q1 2026 revenue was not disclosed, and Q4 2025 revenue was $2.8B, up 12% year-over-year. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Maintain strong EBITDA margincostmixed25% progress
5/7: “For 2026, we now expect our Adjusted EBITDA Margin to be at least 35%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA Margin for 2025 was 35%. Q1 2026 guidance maintains this target. However, Q1 2026 financials are not disclosed, making current delivery unclear. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 3.Repay convertible senior notescapital allocationmixed34% progress
3/16: “The Company used net proceeds from the Offering to repay $2.0 billion aggregate principal amount of its 0% convertible senior notes due March 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company successfully repaid $2.0 billion of convertible senior notes due March 2026. This aligns with their capital allocation strategy and demonstrates delivery on this priority.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 26%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.02 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 51/100, drawdown 57/100, beta 2/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Accelerate revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on accelerating year-over-year revenue growth to low to mid teens in 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 is set to accelerate to low to mid teens. However, Q1 2026 revenue was not disclosed, and Q4 2025 revenue was $2.8B, up 12% year-over-year. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
4%CEO/CFO:“For 2026, we are raising our guidance and now expect year-over-year revenue growth to accelerate to low to mid teens.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For 2026, we expect year-over-year revenue growth to accelerate to at least low double digits.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“For 2026, we are raising our guidance and now expect year-over-year revenue growth to accelerate to low to mid teens.”
- #2
Maintain strong EBITDA margin
CostNew since 2026-05-04Aim to maintain an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of at least 35% for 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA Margin for 2025 was 35%. Q1 2026 guidance maintains this target. However, Q1 2026 financials are not disclosed, making current delivery unclear. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
25%CEO/CFO:“For 2026, we now expect our Adjusted EBITDA Margin to be at least 35%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For 2026, we expect our Adjusted EBITDA Margin to be stable year-over-year.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“For the full-year 2025, we now expect to deliver an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of approximately 35%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“For 2025, consistent with our prior guidance, we expect to deliver a full-year Adjusted EBITDA Margin of at least 34.5%.”
- #3
Repay convertible senior notes
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Focus on repaying $2.0 billion of convertible senior notes due March 2026.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company successfully repaid $2.0 billion of convertible senior notes due March 2026. This aligns with their capital allocation strategy and demonstrates delivery on this priority.
34%CEO/CFO:“The Company used net proceeds from the Offering to repay $2.0 billion aggregate principal amount of its 0% convertible senior notes due March 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-16Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company used net proceeds from the Offering to repay $2.0 billion aggregate principal amount of its 0% convertible senior notes due March 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
38 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ABNB Airbnb | -3.6 | expensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-07)-16 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-072d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Airbnb, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a Shareholder Letter (the “Letter”) announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. In the Letter, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on May 7, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET to discuss its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Letter is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on F…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 76 - 2026-03-161mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Notes Offering On March 12, 2026, Airbnb, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), relating to the public offering (the “Offering”) by the Company of $2.5 billion aggregate principal amount of senior notes, consisting of $85…
capital allocationpositivescore 19 - 2026-03-161mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events On March 16, 2026, the Company used net proceeds from the Offering to repay $2.0 billion aggregate principal amount of its 0% convertible senior notes due March 2026 upon their maturity.
capital allocationneutralscore 15 - 2026-03-161mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth under
capital allocationnegativescore 15 - 2026-02-122mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Airbnb, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a Shareholder Letter (the “Letter”) announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. In the Letter, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on February 12, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET to discuss its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Letter is furni…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 11
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.