ACGL
Arch Capital GroupNASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ACGL has a composite score of 12.9, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 77.7 and reflects a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation, with a sector score of 14.6 and a valuation score of 73.6, indicating it is considered inexpensive. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.92
- Slope (norm)-0.04
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.49 → $2.41 (-3.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 8 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase share repurchase authorizationcapital allocationmixed44% progress
4/20: “Arch Capital Group increased its authorization for its existing share repurchase program by $3.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Arch Capital Group increased its share repurchase authorization by $3.0 billion in 2026-Q1. In 2025-Q4, share repurchases amounted to $798 million. The company is delivering on its capital allocation strategy with substantial repurchase activity.
- 2.Maintain preferred share dividendscapital allocationmixed44% progress
5/7: “The Board of Directors declared dividends with respect to the outstanding 13,200,000 depositary shares.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Arch Capital Group has consistently declared dividends on its preferred shares, maintaining its commitment to preferred shareholders. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, with no changes in dividend policy observed.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 24%; 252d 21%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −12%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.41 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 65/100, drawdown 76/100, beta 41/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase share repurchase authorization
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Arch Capital Group has increased its share repurchase authorization by $3.0 billion.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Arch Capital Group increased its share repurchase authorization by $3.0 billion in 2026-Q1. In 2025-Q4, share repurchases amounted to $798 million. The company is delivering on its capital allocation strategy with substantial repurchase activity.
Share repurchases of $798 million in 2025-Q444%CEO/CFO:“Arch Capital Group increased its authorization for its existing share repurchase program by $3.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-20Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Arch Capital Group increased its authorization for its existing share repurchase program by $3.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Share repurchases of $798 million.”
- #2
Maintain preferred share dividends
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Arch Capital Group has declared dividends on its preferred shares, maintaining its commitment to preferred shareholders.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Arch Capital Group has consistently declared dividends on its preferred shares, maintaining its commitment to preferred shareholders. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, with no changes in dividend policy observed.
44%CEO/CFO:“The Board of Directors declared dividends with respect to the outstanding 13,200,000 depositary shares.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Board of Directors declared dividends with respect to the outstanding 13,200,000 depositary shares.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Board of Directors declared dividends with respect to the outstanding 13,200,000 depositary shares.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACGL Arch Capital Group | +13 | inexpensive | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2022-10-20)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2022-10-20)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On April 28, 2026 Arch Capital Group Ltd. issued a press release reporting its earnings and the availability of its financial supplement for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release and financial supplement are attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information set forth in Ex…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 51 - 2026-05-072d agoItem 8.01
Other Events . Preferred Share Dividends. On May 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of ACGL declared dividends with respect to the outstanding 13,200,000 depositary shares, each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.45% Non-Cumulative Preferred Shares, Series F, $0.01 per share (“Series F Shares”), with a $25,000 liquidation preference per share (equivalent to a $25.00 liquidation preference per depositary share), as outlined below. All such dividends will be payable out…
capital allocationneutralscore 50 - 2026-04-2019d agoItem 8.01
Other Events . On April 19, 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (the “Company”) increased its authorization for its existing share repurchase program by $3.0 billion, which, as in the past, may be effected from time to time in open market or privately negotiated transactions. After taking into account this increased authorization and recent share repurchases, approximately $3.1 billion of share repurchases are available under the program as of April 20, 2026. The timing and amount of the repurchase…
capital allocationpositivescore 33 - 2026-02-262mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events . Preferred Share Dividends. On February 26, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of ACGL declared dividends with respect to the outstanding 13,200,000 depositary shares, each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 5.45% Non-Cumulative Preferred Shares, Series F, $0.01 per share (“Series F Shares”), with a $25,000 liquidation preference per share (equivalent to a $25.00 liquidation preference per depositary share), as outlined below. All such dividends will be payab…
capital allocationneutralscore 10 - 2026-02-092mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On February 9, 2026 Arch Capital Group Ltd. issued a press release reporting its earnings and the availability of its financial supplement for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The press release and financial supplement are attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information set forth…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 9
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.