Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ADI Global Distribution (ADIG)
NYSEInformation TechnologyIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.42-2.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.90 → 1.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADIG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Disciplined capital allocation post-separation | Maintaining disciplined capital allocation will support financial health. | Intact | fails to manage financial obligations effectively | Qualitative: No trip condition met Q2 revenue $1.29B vs $1.26B est; Net Income $6M; Separation agreement executed with Resideo. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextNewly stated in 2026-Q2. Capital allocation actions include issuing 150,000 shares of preferred stock to Resideo and recognizing new financial obligations. This reflects initial capital structuring steps post-separation with limited historical recurrence. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-sensitive technology business with a restructuring underway, not yet a clearly established durable compounder or turnaround. The long-term thesis remains insufficiently supported by the available performance history, and confidence in the evidence snapshot is low.
The evidence does not provide valuation multiples, peer comparisons, or a clear account of market expectations, so whether ADIG is cheap, fair, or expensive cannot be assessed. The priced-in assessment reports low fragility, but that does not establish that the shares are inexpensive or that expectations are low.
Near term, the next earnings report is a concern: ADIG has missed recently and missed its latest quarter. Revenue was slightly higher year over year in 2026-Q2, but operating income fell, while the Resideo separation and new financial obligations add execution demands. Management priorities are stable, but progress on growth and separation remains mixed.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on completing the separation and managing capital allocation while restoring operating income growth. In the near term, easing from the current 3.88% Fed rate or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop; materially slower GDP growth from 2.1% could weigh on growth-sensitive technology businesses.
ADIG has a mixed long-term setup: a major restructuring is underway, but recent earnings performance and elevated risk leave the thesis unresolved. The evidence supports close attention to separation execution and operating results, not a confident multi-year conclusion. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improvement to at least $50M | The company is targeting improved operating income after a recent profit swing. | Under Pressure | falls below $20M in FY26 | Operating income: $25M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=50M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202625,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was stable, growing slightly from $1.277B in 2025-Q2 to $1.286B in 2026-Q2, but operating income declined from $57M to $25M over the same period. Management's focus on growth is persistent but operating income trajectory shows limited progress. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Revenue growth to about $4.97B in FY26 | A primary condition in ADI Global Distribution's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.97B. | Intact | falls below $4.5B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.286B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.97B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20261,286,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was stable, growing slightly from $1.277B in 2025-Q2 to $1.286B in 2026-Q2, but operating income declined from $57M to $25M over the same period. Management's focus on growth is persistent but operating income trajectory shows limited progress. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.90 → $1.90 · observed estimates
$5.17B → $5.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.90 | $5,170,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.