ADP
Automatic Data ProcessingNASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ADP has a composite score of 33.2 and a signal label of "favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.2 and elevated risk, with notable strengths in management (76.5) and valuation (79.1). The analysis is provisional, reflecting potential changes in guidance and macroeconomic factors that could impact future performance.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.00
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.56 → $2.59 (+1.1% / 30d). 9 raised, 2 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 26% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
10 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Revenue and earnings growthgrowthmixed65% progress
4/29: “Our updated fiscal 2026 guidance reflects stronger revenue and earnings growth.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $4.83B in 2025-Q1 to $5.36B in 2026-Q2, indicating a positive trajectory. Management's focus on revenue and earnings growth is delivering results.
- 2.Adjusted EBIT margin expansioncostmixed65% progress
4/29: “Adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 70 to 80 basis points.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. While specific EBIT margin numbers are not provided, management consistently targets margin expansion. The recurring focus suggests commitment, but limited substantive delivery is visible in the data.
- 3.Adjusted diluted EPS growthgrowthmixed65% progress
4/29: “Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 10% to 11%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $2.34 in 2025-Q1 to $2.62 in 2026-Q2, showing progress towards the EPS growth target. Management's guidance aligns with the upward trajectory.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 34%; 252d 23%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −41%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.08 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 62/100, drawdown 18/100, beta 8/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Revenue and earnings growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving stronger revenue and earnings growth.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $4.83B in 2025-Q1 to $5.36B in 2026-Q2, indicating a positive trajectory. Management's focus on revenue and earnings growth is delivering results.
65%CEO/CFO:“Our updated fiscal 2026 guidance reflects stronger revenue and earnings growth.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Press release
“Our updated fiscal 2026 guidance reflects stronger revenue and earnings growth.”
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Raising full year guidance for revenue and adjusted diluted EPS growth.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Maintaining fiscal 2026 consolidated outlook for revenue growth of 5% to 6%.”
- #2
Adjusted EBIT margin expansion
CostNew since 2026-05-04Aim for adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 70 to 80 basis points.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. While specific EBIT margin numbers are not provided, management consistently targets margin expansion. The recurring focus suggests commitment, but limited substantive delivery is visible in the data.
65%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 70 to 80 basis points.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Press release
“Adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 70 to 80 basis points.”
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Raising full year guidance for adjusted EBIT margin.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 50 to 70 basis points.”
- #3
Adjusted diluted EPS growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Target adjusted diluted EPS growth of 10% to 11%.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $2.34 in 2025-Q1 to $2.62 in 2026-Q2, showing progress towards the EPS growth target. Management's guidance aligns with the upward trajectory.
65%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 10% to 11%.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Press release
“Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 10% to 11%.”
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Raising full year guidance for adjusted diluted EPS growth.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 8% to 10%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADP Automatic Data Processing | +33 | inexpensive | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-29)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-072d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 4, 2026, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (the “Company”) executed an Underwriting Agreement (attached hereto as Exhibit 1.1 and incorporated herein by reference) with BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BofA Securities, Inc. and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, as representatives of the underwriters listed in Schedule 1 thereto (collectively, the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Underwriters $1,000,000,000 a…
capital allocationneutralscore 63 - 2026-04-2910d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing that the Registrant's financial results for the third quarter ended March 31, 2026 were available through an earnings release available on the Registrant's website. A copy of the Registrant's earnings release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99 and is hereby incorporated by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-01-283mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing that the Registrant's financial results for the second quarter ended December 31, 2025 were available through an earnings release available on the Registrant's website. A copy of the Registrant's earnings release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99 and is hereby incorporated by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 6 - 2025-10-296mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2025, the Registrant issued a press release announcing that the Registrant's financial results for the first quarter ended September 30, 2025 were available through an earnings release available on the Registrant's website. A copy of the Registrant's earnings release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99 and is hereby incorporated by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1 - 2025-07-309mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2025, the Registrant issued a press release announcing that the Registrant's financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended June 30, 2025 were available through an earnings release available on the Registrant's website. A copy of the Registrant's earnings release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99 and is hereby incorporated by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.