ADSK
AutodeskNASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ADSK has a composite score of 29.6 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 78.5 and elevated risk, with notable drivers including macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor. The valuation score is 71.7, indicating it is considered inexpensive. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.16
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.05 → $3.04 (-0.1% / 30d). 20 raised, 1 cut, 25 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 31.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning — often a turnaround setup.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
21 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Optimize sales and marketingcostbehind0% progressprovisional
11/25: “CEO: 'We have successfully executed our sales and marketing optimization plan.'”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Despite the focus on optimizing sales and marketing, operating income showed mixed results, with a decrease from $470M in 2026-Q3 to $431M in 2026-Q4. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Enhance operating margincostwatchprovisional
2/27: “CFO: 'We expect to deliver GAAP margins among the best in the industry.'”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP operating margin decreased from 25% in 2026-Q3 to 22% in 2026-Q4. Despite the stated focus on enhancing margins, the trajectory shows limited progress.
- 3.Exceed financial guidancegrowthmixed65% progress
2/26: “CFO: 'Our fiscal 2027 guidance assumes that the underlying momentum of the business will remain strong.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.85B in 2026-Q3 to $1.96B in 2026-Q4, indicating some progress towards exceeding financial guidance. However, the trajectory shows narrow delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 31%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −33%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 48/100, drawdown 34/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Optimize sales and marketing
CostNew since 2026-05-04Autodesk is optimizing its sales and marketing to drive higher margins and improve efficiency.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Despite the focus on optimizing sales and marketing, operating income showed mixed results, with a decrease from $470M in 2026-Q3 to $431M in 2026-Q4. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
0%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We have successfully executed our sales and marketing optimization plan.'”Earnings callSource dated 2025-11-25Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (4)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We continue to make the right decisions to drive long-term shareholder value by focusing on our strategic priorities in cloud, platform, and AI; optimizing our sales and marketing to drive high…”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We have now initiated the optimization phase of our sales and marketing plan.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CFO: 'We have so far successfully executed our sales and marketing optimization plan.'”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“CEO: 'We are reallocating internal resources toward these critical areas and beginning the optimization of our go-to-market functions.'”
- #2
Enhance operating margin
CostNew since 2026-05-04Autodesk aims to enhance its operating margin through strategic initiatives and cost optimization.
Behind →WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP operating margin decreased from 25% in 2026-Q3 to 22% in 2026-Q4. Despite the stated focus on enhancing margins, the trajectory shows limited progress.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“CFO: 'We expect to deliver GAAP margins among the best in the industry.'”Earnings callSource dated 2025-02-27Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Optimizing our sales and marketing to drive higher margins.'”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CFO: 'Once our sales and marketing optimization is complete, we expect to deliver GAAP margins among the best in the industry.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'Disciplined execution and capital deployment is driving even greater operational velocity and efficiency.'”
- #3
Exceed financial guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Autodesk aims to exceed its financial guidance through strong business performance and strategic initiatives.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.85B in 2026-Q3 to $1.96B in 2026-Q4, indicating some progress towards exceeding financial guidance. However, the trajectory shows narrow delivery so far.
65%CEO/CFO:“CFO: 'Our fiscal 2027 guidance assumes that the underlying momentum of the business will remain strong.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-26Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CFO: 'Our fiscal 2027 guidance assumes that the underlying momentum of the business will remain strong.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CFO: 'We are raising our full-year guidance to reflect the current momentum of the business.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADSK Autodesk | +30 | inexpensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-26)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-26)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2415d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Retirement of Director On April 20, 2026, Stephen Milligan informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Autodesk, Inc. (the “Company”) of his intention not to stand for re-election at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). On April 24, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding Mr. Milligan’s retiremen…
executive changeneutralscore 40 - 2026-02-262mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Autodesk, Inc. (“Autodesk” or the “Company”) issued a press release reporting financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The exhibit shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 13 - 2026-01-223mo agoItem 2.05
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On January 22, 2026, Autodesk, Inc. (“Autodesk” or the “Company”) announced a world-wide restructuring plan (the “Plan”) that marks the final phase of its sales and marketing optimization. Over the past few years, Autodesk has evolved its go-to-market strategy, streamlined customer engagement, and enhanced its sales channels to drive sustainable growth, while improving efficiency and driving operating margin growth. The implementation of this…
product or strategy shiftneutralscore 5 - 2026-01-223mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosures. The Company continued to execute its strategic plans effectively during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, driving strong and consistent business performance. As a result, the Company now expects its fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 and full-year billings, revenue, non-GAAP operating margin, non-GAAP earnings per share, and free cash flow to all be above the top end of its guidance as provided on its third quarter of fiscal year 2026 earnings call on November…
product or strategy shiftnegativescore 4 - 2025-11-255mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 25, 2025, Autodesk, Inc. (“Autodesk” or the “Company”) issued a press release reporting financial results for the third fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2025. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The exhibit shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.