AEP
American Electric PowerNASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AEP has a composite score of 17.5 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The valuation label has changed from "fair" to "full," indicating a shift in perception regarding its valuation. The current scores reflect medium confidence, with notable strengths in quality (65.0) and management (55.7), while the sector score is slightly negative at -0.7. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.26
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.49 → $1.51 (+1.6% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 16 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
4 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reaffirm 2026 earnings outlookgrowthbehind0% progress
5/5: “AEP reaffirms full-year 2026 operating earnings guidance of $6.15 to $6.45 per share.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. AEP has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.15 to $6.45. However, the financials show a decline in revenue from $6.01B in 2025-Q3 to $3.60B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving the upper end of the guidance range.
- 2.Increase operating earningsgrowthwatchprovisional
10/29: “AEP expects operating earnings per share to increase at a 9% compounded annual growth rate over the five-year period.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. AEP has set a target for operating earnings to grow at a 9% CAGR over five years. Despite this ambition, operating income decreased from $1.52B in 2025-Q3 to $0.21B in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress in the short term.
- 3.Invest in transmission infrastructurecapital allocationwatchprovisional
6/9: “AEP is investing $54 billion from 2025 through 2029 to enhance service for customers.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q2. AEP announced a $54 billion investment plan for transmission infrastructure over five years. This strategic capital allocation aims to support growth, but the immediate financial impact is not yet visible in the operating income, which fell to $0.21B in 2025-Q4.
- 4.Reaffirm 2025 earnings guidancegrowthwatchprovisional
10/29: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 19%; 252d 18%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −8%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 70/100, drawdown 84/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of May 8, 2026, the valuation label for AEP changed from "fair" to "full." This change is accompanied by an unfavorable composite delta estimate of -8.0 due to a potential guidance cut, and another unfavorable estimate of -7.3 if the rates state reverses from negative to positive. Additionally, there are favorable scenarios with estimates of 5.0 and 4.0 if the utilities sector trend improves or if next-quarter guidance is raised, respectively. The overall signal is labeled as "mild_favorable."
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reaffirm 2026 earnings outlook
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04AEP reaffirms its full-year 2026 operating earnings guidance of $6.15 to $6.45 per share.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. AEP has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.15 to $6.45. However, the financials show a decline in revenue from $6.01B in 2025-Q3 to $3.60B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving the upper end of the guidance range.
0%CEO/CFO:“AEP reaffirms full-year 2026 operating earnings guidance of $6.15 to $6.45 per share.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“AEP reaffirmed its 2026 operating earnings outlook of $6.15 to $6.45 per share.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“AEP reaffirmed its 2026 operating earnings outlook of $6.15 to $6.45 per share.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“AEP expects operating earnings per share to increase at a 9% compounded annual growth rate over the five-year period.”
- #2
Increase operating earnings
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04AEP aims to increase operating earnings, focusing on growth and efficiency.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q3. AEP has set a target for operating earnings to grow at a 9% CAGR over five years. Despite this ambition, operating income decreased from $1.52B in 2025-Q3 to $0.21B in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress in the short term.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“AEP expects operating earnings per share to increase at a 9% compounded annual growth rate over the five-year period.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“AEP expects operating earnings per share to increase at a 9% compounded annual growth rate over the five-year period.”
- #3
Invest in transmission infrastructure
Capital allocationAEP is investing $54 billion over five years to enhance transmission infrastructure.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q2. AEP announced a $54 billion investment plan for transmission infrastructure over five years. This strategic capital allocation aims to support growth, but the immediate financial impact is not yet visible in the operating income, which fell to $0.21B in 2025-Q4.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“AEP is investing $54 billion from 2025 through 2029 to enhance service for customers.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-06-09Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-06-09provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“AEP is investing $54 billion from 2025 through 2029 to enhance service for customers.”
- #4
Reaffirm 2025 earnings guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04AEP reaffirms its 2025 operating earnings guidance range of $5.75 to $5.95 per share.
WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-29First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
0 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AEP American Electric Power | +18 | full | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-054d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition The information, including the exhibit attached hereto, in this Current Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, except as otherwi…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 60 - 2026-02-122mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition The information, including the exhibit attached hereto, in this Current Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, except as otherwi…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9 - 2026-02-172mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 13, 2026, Henry P. Linginfelter, a member of the Board of Directors ("Board") of American Electric Power Company, Inc. ("Company"), notified the Board that he would not stand for re-election to the Board at the Company's 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Mr. Linginfelter stated that his decision is not due to any disagreement with th…
executive changeneutralscore 9 - 2025-12-294mo agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 22, 2025, American Electric Power Company, Inc. (“American Electric Power,” “AEP” or the “Company”) entered into a Board Observer Agreement (the “Board Observer Agreement”) with Carl C. Icahn, Icahn Partners LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund LP, Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., Icahn Enterprises Holdings L.P., IPH GP LLC, Icahn Capital LP, Icahn Onshore LP, Icahn Offshore LP and Beckton Corp (collectively, the “Icahn Group”) and Andrew J. Teno.…
mna activitypositivescore 3 - 2025-12-194mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 18, 2025, the Board of Directors ("Board") of American Electric Power Company, Inc. ("AEP") granted a special equity award to William J. Fehrman, AEP’s Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer, as part of AEP's retention strategy and to promote further alignment between Mr. Fehrman’s compensation and Company performance. 1. $10,000,…
executive changeneutralscore 3
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.