AES
AES CorporationNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AES has a composite score of 18.7, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 33.9 and a management score of 52.8. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the current assessment may change. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, labor, inflation, and growth.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.09
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.51 (+5.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 9% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
5 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Add 3.2 GW of new projects in operation in 2025growthwatchprovisional
11/4: “On track to add 3.2 GW of new projects in operation in 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $2,855 million in 2025-Q2 to $3,351 million in 2025-Q3. The trajectory is delivering on the stated goal of adding 3.2 GW of new projects in operation by the end of 2025.
- 2.Sign 14-17 GW of PPAs from 2023 to 2025growthwatchprovisional
11/4: “On track to sign a total of 14-17 GW for 2023 through 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. PPA backlog of 11.1 GW, including 5 GW under construction, indicates progress towards the 14-17 GW target. The trajectory shows delivering on the stated goal.
- 3.Reaffirm 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidancegrowthwatchprovisional
11/4: “Reaffirming 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $830 million in 2025-Q3, indicating progress towards the 2025 guidance range of $2,650 to $2,850 million. The trajectory is delivering on the stated goal.
- 4.Negotiate new PPA for Maritza plantregulatorywatchprovisional
1/16: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
- 5.Execute divestiture plancapital allocationwatchprovisional
3/2: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 6%; 252d 46%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −23%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 23/100, drawdown 54/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Add 3.2 GW of new projects in operation in 2025
GrowthAES aims to add 3.2 GW of new projects to its operating portfolio by the end of 2025.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $2,855 million in 2025-Q2 to $3,351 million in 2025-Q3. The trajectory is delivering on the stated goal of adding 3.2 GW of new projects in operation by the end of 2025.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“On track to add 3.2 GW of new projects in operation in 2025.”Earnings callSource dated 2025-11-04Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-11-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“On track to add 3.2 GW of new projects in operation in 2025.”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“On track to add 3.2 GW of new projects in operation in 2025.”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“On track to add 3.2 GW of new projects in operation in 2025.”
- #2
Sign 14-17 GW of PPAs from 2023 to 2025
GrowthAES aims to sign 14-17 GW of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) from 2023 through 2025.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. PPA backlog of 11.1 GW, including 5 GW under construction, indicates progress towards the 14-17 GW target. The trajectory shows delivering on the stated goal.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“On track to sign a total of 14-17 GW for 2023 through 2025.”Earnings callSource dated 2025-11-04Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-11-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“On track to sign a total of 14-17 GW for 2023 through 2025.”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“On track to sign a total of 14-17 GW for 2023 through 2025.”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“On track to sign a total of 14-17 GW for 2023 through 2025.”
- #3
Reaffirm 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance
GrowthAES reaffirms its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2,650 to $2,850 million.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $830 million in 2025-Q3, indicating progress towards the 2025 guidance range of $2,650 to $2,850 million. The trajectory is delivering on the stated goal.
Adjusted EBITDA was $830 million in 2025-Q3No scoreCEO/CFO:“Reaffirming 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million.”Earnings callSource dated 2025-11-04Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-11-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“Reaffirming 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million.”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“Reaffirming 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million.”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“Reaffirming 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million.”
- #4
Negotiate new PPA for Maritza plant
RegulatoryNew since 2026-05-04Engage in negotiations for a new Power Purchase Agreement for the Maritza power plant in Bulgaria as the current PPA expires in May 2026.
WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-16First seen 2026-05-04provisional - #5
Execute divestiture plan
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Proceed with the divestiture as outlined in the Agreement and Plan of Merger with Horizon Parent, L.P.
Behind →WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-02First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
59 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AES AES Corporation | +19 | fair | elevated |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2025-11-04)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2025-11-04)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1622d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Transition of Chief Accounting Officer and Appointment of Controller On April 14, 2026, The AES Corporation (the “Company” or “AES”) and Sherry Kohan mutually determined that Ms. Kohan will cease to serve in her role as Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of the Company, effective May 7, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), and that she will…
executive changeneutralscore 48 - 2026-03-191mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Following the announcement on March 2, 2026 that The AES Corporation (the “Company” or “AES”) had entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger, by and among the Company, Horizon Parent, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“Parent”), and Horizon Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Parent, the Company entered into (i) Amendment No. 2 to the Credit Agreement (the “Citi Second Amendment”) on March 13, 2026, by and a…
capital allocationneutralscore 21 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of New President On March 1, 2026, the Board appointed Ricardo Falú, 46 years old, to serve as the Company’s President, effective March 2, 2026. Previously, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company, and President of the Company’s New Energy Technologies Strategic Business Unit (“SBU”) from Februar…
executive changeneutralscore 17 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 1, 2026, The AES Corporation (the “Company” or “AES”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”), by and among the Company, Horizon Parent, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“Parent”), and Horizon Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“Merger Sub”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein, Merger Sub will merge wit…
mna activityneutralscore 14 - 2026-01-163mo agoItem 2.06
Material Impairments The AES Corporation’s (“AES”) Maritza power plant in Bulgaria is operating under a Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) that expires in May 2026. Although negotiations are underway for a new PPA and other alternatives to realize additional value are being considered, no agreements have been reached. Further, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Company made the decision not to invest in a conversion of the plant to an alternative fuel source. The Company has determined that col…
product or strategy shiftnegativescore 5
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.