AFL
AflacNYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AFL has a composite score of -2.6, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 66.8 and a low risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation, with a macro score of -7.7 and a momentum score of -26.2. This assessment is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.87 → $1.77 (-5.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 21% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -7.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence — fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Focus on third sector products in Japanproductwatchprovisional
2/5: “CEO: 'We have continued to focus on third sector products as well as introducing these policies to new and younger customers.'”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Aflac's focus on third sector products in Japan is consistent, targeting new and younger customers. Despite this focus, net earned premiums in yen for Aflac Japan decreased by 5.0% in 2025-Q1 compared to the previous year, indicating limited progress in revenue growth from this strategy.
- 2.Maintain strong capital and cash flowscapital allocationbehind30% progressprovisional
2/5: “CEO: 'We continue to generate strong capital and cash flows while maintaining our commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management.'”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Aflac's commitment to maintaining strong capital and cash flows is consistent. Shareholders' equity increased from $26.0 billion in 2024-Q2 to $29.5 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating effective capital management. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
- 3.Increase dividend and share repurchasecapital allocationon track76% progressprovisional
2/5: “CEO: 'We treasure our milestone of 43 consecutive years of dividend increases and remain committed to extending this record.'”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividends paid per share increased from $0.50 in 2024-Q3 to $0.61 in 2026-Q1, reflecting Aflac's commitment to returning capital to shareholders. The company repurchased $3.5 billion in shares for 2025, indicating delivery on this priority.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 16%; 252d 17%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −9%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.53 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 72/100, drawdown 82/100, beta 53/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · -9.1% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Focus on third sector products in Japan
ProductAflac continues to focus on third sector products in Japan, targeting new and younger customers.
WatchStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Aflac's focus on third sector products in Japan is consistent, targeting new and younger customers. Despite this focus, net earned premiums in yen for Aflac Japan decreased by 5.0% in 2025-Q1 compared to the previous year, indicating limited progress in revenue growth from this strategy.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We have continued to focus on third sector products as well as introducing these policies to new and younger customers.'”Press releaseSource dated 2025-02-05Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-02-05provisionalShow history (6)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We continue to promote awareness for third sector protection to new and younger customers.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'We have continued to focus on third sector products as well as introducing these policies to new and younger customers.'”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“CEO: 'We have continued to focus on third sector products as well as introducing these policies to new and younger customers.'”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We have continued to focus on third sector products as well as introducing these policies to new and younger customers.'”
- 2024-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We have continued to focus on third sector products as well as introducing these policies to new and younger customers.'”
- 2024-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'We have continued to focus on third sector products as well as introducing these policies to new and younger customers.'”
- #2
Maintain strong capital and cash flows
Capital allocationAflac aims to maintain strong capital and cash flows while managing liquidity and capital prudently.
BehindStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Aflac's commitment to maintaining strong capital and cash flows is consistent. Shareholders' equity increased from $26.0 billion in 2024-Q2 to $29.5 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating effective capital management. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
30%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We continue to generate strong capital and cash flows while maintaining our commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management.'”Press releaseSource dated 2025-02-05Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-02-05provisionalShow history (6)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We continue to generate strong capital and cash flows while maintaining our commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'We continue to generate strong capital and cash flows while maintaining our commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management.'”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“CEO: 'We continue to generate strong capital and cash flows while maintaining our commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management.'”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We continue to generate strong capital and cash flows while maintaining our commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management.'”
- 2024-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We continue to generate strong capital and cash flows while maintaining our commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management.'”
- 2024-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'We continue to generate strong capital and cash flows while maintaining our commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management.'”
- #3
Increase dividend and share repurchase
Capital allocationAflac plans to increase its dividend and continue share repurchases to return capital to shareholders.
On trackStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividends paid per share increased from $0.50 in 2024-Q3 to $0.61 in 2026-Q1, reflecting Aflac's commitment to returning capital to shareholders. The company repurchased $3.5 billion in shares for 2025, indicating delivery on this priority.
Dividends paid per share increased from $0.50 in 2024-Q3 to $0.61 in 2026-Q176%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We treasure our milestone of 43 consecutive years of dividend increases and remain committed to extending this record.'”Press releaseSource dated 2025-02-05Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-02-05provisionalShow history (6)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We treasure our milestone of 43 consecutive years of dividend increases and remain committed to extending this record.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'We treasure our milestone of 43 consecutive years of dividend increases and remain committed to extending this record.'”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“CEO: 'We treasure our milestone of 43 consecutive years of dividend increases and remain committed to extending this record.'”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We treasure our milestone of 43 consecutive years of dividend increases and remain committed to extending this record.'”
- 2024-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We treasure our milestone of 42 consecutive years of dividend increases and remain committed to extending this record.'”
- 2024-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'We treasure our milestone of 42 consecutive years of dividend increases and remain committed to extending this record.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AFL Aflac | -2.6 | expensive | low |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-04)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-04)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2910d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Aflac Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release dated April 29, 2026 in which it reported the Company's 2026 first quarter financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein in its entirety. In addition, a copy of the Company's first quarter supplemental earnings materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Repor…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Aflac Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release dated February 4, 2026 in which it reported the Company's 2025 fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein in its entirety. In addition, a copy of the Company's fourth quarter supplemental earnings materials is furnished as Exhibit 9…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-11-046mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2025, Aflac Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release dated November 4, 2025 in which it reported the Company's 2025 third quarter financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein in its entirety. In addition, a copy of the Company's third quarter supplemental earnings materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current R…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 1 - 2025-08-278mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On August 27, 2025 (the “Closing Date”), pursuant to the Purchase Agreement among Aflac Incorporated (the “Company”), TD Securities (USA) LLC, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Mizuho Securities USA LLC, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC (the “Representatives”), as representatives of the several initial purchasers named therein, and Wynnton Funding Trust,…
capital allocationnegativescore 0 - 2025-08-059mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2025, Aflac Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release dated August 5, 2025 in which it reported the Company's 2025 second quarter financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein in its entirety. In addition, a copy of the Company's second quarter supplemental earnings materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Rep…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.