AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.NYSEFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AJG has a composite score of 3.6 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects a medium confidence level of 67.4. Key drivers include a macro score of -7.7 and a sector score of 14.6, indicating mixed conditions influenced by macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.34
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.89 → $2.86 (-1.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 13 cut, 20 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Organic and M&A revenue growth strategygrowthbehind30% progressprovisional
1/29: “CEO: 'Our two-pronged revenue growth strategy, that's organic and M&A, drove double-digit top line growth.'”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $11.4B in 2024 to $13.8B in 2025, reflecting the impact of the organic and M&A growth strategy. The trajectory is delivering as management has consistently emphasized this dual approach.
- 2.Integration of AssuredPartners acquisitiongrowthbehind30% progressprovisional
10/30: “CEO: 'The early days of AssuredPartners professionals joining the Gallagher team is off to a terrific start!'”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The acquisition of AssuredPartners for approximately $13.8 billion is a significant strategic move. Management has emphasized integration progress, but financials do not yet show specific synergies realized. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 3.Maintain strong adjusted EBITDAC marginscostbehind30% progressprovisional
7/31: “CEO: 'Our adjusted EBITDAC margin increased 307 basis points to 34.5%.'”
Why this status
Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted EBITDAC margin increased to 34.5% in 2025-Q2, reflecting management's focus on operational efficiencies. However, the margin decreased from 41.1% in 2025-Q1, indicating challenges in maintaining the high levels. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 29%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −43%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.72 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 54/100, drawdown 14/100, beta 72/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Organic and M&A revenue growth strategy
GrowthFocus on driving revenue growth through organic means and mergers and acquisitions.
BehindStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $11.4B in 2024 to $13.8B in 2025, reflecting the impact of the organic and M&A growth strategy. The trajectory is delivering as management has consistently emphasized this dual approach.
30%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Our two-pronged revenue growth strategy, that's organic and M&A, drove double-digit top line growth.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-29provisionalShow history (6)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our two-pronged revenue growth strategy, that's organic and M&A, drove double-digit top line growth.'”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our two-pronged growth strategy – organic and M&A – continues to benefit us.'”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our core brokerage and risk management segments combined to deliver 16% revenue growth.'”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our core brokerage and risk management segments combined to deliver 14% revenue growth.'”
- 2024-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our core brokerage and risk management segments combined to deliver 20% growth in revenue.'”
- 2024-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'For our combined brokerage and risk management segments, total revenues increased 13%.'”
- #2
Integration of AssuredPartners acquisition
GrowthFocus on integrating the AssuredPartners acquisition to enhance operational synergies.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The acquisition of AssuredPartners for approximately $13.8 billion is a significant strategic move. Management has emphasized integration progress, but financials do not yet show specific synergies realized. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
Acquired AssuredPartners for approximately $13.8 billion30%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'The early days of AssuredPartners professionals joining the Gallagher team is off to a terrific start!'”Earnings callSource dated 2025-10-30Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-10-30provisionalShow history (4)
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'The early days of AssuredPartners professionals joining the Gallagher team is off to a terrific start!'”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“CEO: 'We are making excellent progress on the pending AssuredPartners acquisition.'”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“CEO: 'We also completed the acquisition of Woodruff Sawyer, adding more than $250 million of estimated annual revenue.'”
- 2024-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'We raised $8.5 billion of cash in our December 11, 2024 follow-on common stock offering.'”
- #3
Maintain strong adjusted EBITDAC margins
CostFocus on maintaining strong adjusted EBITDAC margins through operational efficiencies.
BehindStated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted EBITDAC margin increased to 34.5% in 2025-Q2, reflecting management's focus on operational efficiencies. However, the margin decreased from 41.1% in 2025-Q1, indicating challenges in maintaining the high levels. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
Adjusted EBITDAC margin increased to 34.5% in 2025-Q230%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Our adjusted EBITDAC margin increased 307 basis points to 34.5%.'”Earnings callSource dated 2025-07-31Stated 5 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-07-31provisionalShow history (5)
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our adjusted EBITDAC margin increased 307 basis points to 34.5%.'”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our adjusted EBITDAC margin increased 338 basis points to 41.1%.'”
- 2024-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our adjusted EBITDAC margin increased by more than 100 basis points to 31.4%.'”
- 2024-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'Delivered 123 basis points of adjusted EBITDAC margin expansion.'”
- 2024-Q2Earnings call
“CEO: 'Improved our adjusted EBITDAC margin by more than 100 basis points.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | +3.6 | fair | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-01-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-01-29)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-309d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (the Company) issued a press release setting forth the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the Earnings Release). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 54 - 2026-03-121mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 6, 2026, Sherry Barrat informed Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (the “ Company ”) that she has decided to retire from the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”). Her retirement will be effective on May 12, 2026 upon the election of directors at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “ 2026 Annual Meeting ”). Accordingly, Ms. Barrat will not sta…
executive changeneutralscore 15 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (the Company) issued a press release setting forth the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 (the Earnings Release). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2025-10-306mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 30, 2025, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (the Company) issued a press release setting forth the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 (the Earnings Release). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1 - 2025-08-188mo agoItem 2.01
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On August 18, 2025, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (the “ Company ”) completed its previously announced acquisition (the “ Transaction ”) of all of the issued and outstanding stock of Dolphin Topco, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Acquired Entity ”). The Transaction was completed pursuant to a Stock Purchase Agreement entered into on December 7, 2024 (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) among the Company, The AssuredPartners Group LP, a Delaware Limit…
mna activitypositivescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.