Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. (ALDX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.480.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALDX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALDX — director transition
Dated 2026-06-10
Director, Chair of the Audit Committee — Darlene Deptula-Hicks: Ms. Deptula-Hicks was appointed as a director and Chair of the Audit Committee.
Why it matters: The outcomes of FDA meetings can impact the approval timeline for reproxalap. This is crucial for Aldeyra's growth.
Supportive ifThe FDA gave positive feedback on the clinical plan for reproxalap.
Worry ifNegative feedback or requests for additional trials from the FDA.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway show financial health and how well the company can operate.
Worry ifCash and equivalents are over $70 million. This shows there is enough runway.
Less concerning ifCash and equivalents are under $70 million. This suggests possible funding problems.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue trends and overall financial health. This is crucial for assessing future growth potential.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth over 10% compared to last year. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue going down or staying the same. This raises concerns about growth.
Why it matters: Updates on clinical trials can show if the company is moving toward regulatory approval. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifA press release will share good results from a clinical trial or regulatory filing.
Worry ifNo news or bad results from ongoing clinical trials.
Why it matters: The trial's success is key for Aldeyra's growth. Positive results could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifPositive interim results from the Phase 3 trial of reproxalap for dry eye disease.
Worry ifTrial results show no real improvement over the placebo.
Why it matters: Better operating losses mean the company is controlling costs well. This can help investors.
Supportive ifOperating losses were less than negative $3.5M for Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating losses remain at or worsen beyond negative $3.5M for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The new office space helps Aldeyra grow. Finishing this shows they are stable.
Supportive ifAldeyra will move into the new office space by September 1, 2026.
Worry ifDelays or issues arise in the move to the new office space.
Why it matters: The health care sector is growing. Signs of revenue growth speeding up could help Aldeyra.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth shows signs of re-acceleration back toward previous highs.
Worry ifRevenue growth keeps slowing down. This shows ongoing challenges for the sector.
Why it matters: Less cash burn shows better money management. This could calm investor worries.
Supportive ifCash from operations improves to less than negative $5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations gets worse or stays above negative $5 million.
Why it matters: FDA feedback matters for how fast reproxalap can get approved.
Supportive ifFDA accepts the NDA resubmission for reproxalap. No extra trials are needed.
Worry ifFDA issues a complete response letter or requests more data before review.
Why it matters: Advancing ADX-2191 trials could lead to new treatments for retinal diseases.
Supportive ifPositive early results from clinical trials for ADX-2191 are now shared.
Worry ifNegative results or delays in the clinical trials for ADX-2191 are reported.
Why it matters: Finalizing the lease helps Aldeyra grow its operations and plans.
Supportive ifThe office lease is signed and will be operational by September 1, 2026.
Worry ifDelays or issues arise that prevent the lease from being finalized.
Why it matters: The AbbVie option outcome could change Aldeyra's money and plans.
Watch forAbbVie exercises its option. This gives Aldeyra a financial boost.
Also watch forAbbVie chooses not to exercise the option. This limits Aldeyra's funding.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $759 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,847 loss on $10,000 · 78.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.