Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. (ALDX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.62-4.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALDX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALDX — FDA rejection / CRL
Dated 2026-09-29
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, on September 29, 2026, Aldeyra issued the Press Release to announce the intent to submit an FDRR, appealing the March 16, 2026 Complete Response Letter that denied approval of a New Drug Application for reproxalap for the treatment of dry eye disease, and the extension of Aldeyra’s projected operational cash runway into 2029. The Press Release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated by reference herein. Forward-Looking Statements This Current…
Why it matters: Aldeyra reports losses and relies on cash to fund its trials. A shorter runway could limit its plans.
Worry ifThe November 4 update puts the cash runway before 2029 or reports cash below the stated $45.1 million at June 30, 2026.
Less concerning ifThe update keeps the runway into 2029 and reports cash at or above $45.1 million.
Why it matters: A clear start date would show the company is moving a second late-stage program forward. A delay could slow that work.
Supportive ifAldeyra announces that the ADX-2191 Phase 3 trial has begun in 2027.
Worry ifAldeyra delays the start beyond 2027 or drops the planned Phase 3 trial.
Why it matters: The FDA rejected the dry eye application three times. A decision that supports Aldeyra's appeal could open a path to another review.
Watch forThe FDA grants the appeal or directs a path to another review without asking for a new trial.
Also watch forThe FDA denies the appeal or says the current trial results do not support approval.
Why it matters: The new office lease runs through 2029. Higher costs could add pressure while Aldeyra funds drug trials.
Worry ifAldeyra reports that the lease raised costs enough to shorten its cash runway or cut planned trial work.
Less concerning ifAldeyra reports no change to its runway into 2029 and keeps its planned trial work on schedule.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$290 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $971 loss on $10,000 · 9.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,003 loss on $10,000 · 90.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.