ALGN
Align TechnologyNASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ALGN has a composite score of 12.3, indicating a "mild favorable" signal. The score is driven by a high confidence level of 84.6, but it faces elevated market risk with a score of 66.8. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as labor, rates, growth, and inflation, with a notable unfavorable momentum score of -13.5.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.35
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.77 → $2.61 (-5.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 10 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.6% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Repurchase $200 million in stockcapital allocationmixed44% progress
4/29: “Align expects to repurchase an additional $200.0 million of its common stock over a six-month period beginning on or about May 1, 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Align announced a $200 million stock repurchase plan starting May 2026. As of March 31, 2026, $800 million remains available under the $1 billion program. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Achieve revenue growth of 3% to 4% in 2026growthon track100% progress
4/29: “We expect 2026 worldwide revenue growth to be up 3% to 4% year-over-year.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Q1'26 total revenues were $1,040.1 million, up 6.2% year-over-year, exceeding the 3% to 4% target. The trajectory is delivering against the stated growth priority.
- 3.Maintain operating margin guidancecostbehind14% progress
4/29: “We expect 2026 GAAP operating margin to be slightly below 18.0%, an approximately 400 basis points improvement over 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Q1'26 operating margin was 13.6%, below the target of slightly below 18.0% for 2026. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
Guidance track record
Last 6 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-31 | $0.78 – $0.84 | $1.18 | beat |
| 2019-06-30 | $1.47 – $1.54 | $1.33 | miss |
| 2019-09-30 | $1.09 – $1.16 | $1.28 | beat |
| 2019-12-31 | $1.35 – $1.42 | $1.53 | beat |
| 2020-03-31 | $1.86 – $1.87 | $0.73 | miss |
| 2020-12-31 | $1.76 | $2.61 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 39%; 252d 59%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −40%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 1.54 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 2/100, drawdown 21/100, beta 46/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 67% of the last 6 guided quarters · 8.3% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Repurchase $200 million in stock
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Align plans to repurchase $200 million of its common stock over a six-month period starting May 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Align announced a $200 million stock repurchase plan starting May 2026. As of March 31, 2026, $800 million remains available under the $1 billion program. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
44%CEO/CFO:“Align expects to repurchase an additional $200.0 million of its common stock over a six-month period beginning on or about May 1, 2026.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Align expects to repurchase an additional $200.0 million of its common stock over a six-month period beginning on or about May 1, 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Align announced its intention to repurchase $200 million of common stock under its previously authorized $1.0 billion stock repurchase program.”
- #2
Achieve revenue growth of 3% to 4% in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Align aims for 2026 worldwide revenue growth of 3% to 4% year-over-year.
Watch →On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Q1'26 total revenues were $1,040.1 million, up 6.2% year-over-year, exceeding the 3% to 4% target. The trajectory is delivering against the stated growth priority.
Q1'26 total revenues were $1,040.1 million, up 6.2% year-over-year100%CEO/CFO:“We expect 2026 worldwide revenue growth to be up 3% to 4% year-over-year.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“We expect 2026 worldwide revenue growth to be up 3% to 4% year-over-year.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“We expect 2026 worldwide revenue growth to be up 3% to 4% year-over-year.”
- #3
Maintain operating margin guidance
CostNew since 2026-05-04Align aims to maintain its operating margin guidance for fiscal 2026.
Watch →BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Q1'26 operating margin was 13.6%, below the target of slightly below 18.0% for 2026. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
14%CEO/CFO:“We expect 2026 GAAP operating margin to be slightly below 18.0%, an approximately 400 basis points improvement over 2025.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“We expect 2026 GAAP operating margin to be slightly below 18.0%, an approximately 400 basis points improvement over 2025.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“We expect the 2026 GAAP operating margin to be slightly below 18.0%, approximately 400 basis points improvement over 2025.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALGN Align Technology | +12 | fair | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2910d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Align Technology, Inc. issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. This information is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorp…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-05-018d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. Align Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it is planning to repurchase $200.0 million of the Company’s common stock through open market repurchases under the Company’s $1.0 billion stock repurchase program that was approved by the Company’s Board of Directors in April 2025. The full text of the press release announcing the foregoing information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
capital allocationpositivescore 43 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Align Technology, Inc. issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. This information is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exc…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 8 - 2025-10-296mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2025, Align Technology, Inc. issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. This information is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1 - 2025-09-187mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers. On September 12, 2025, Align Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) terminated the employment of Mr. Stuart Hockridge, Executive Vice President, Global Human Resources of Align, effective May 2026. The termination was not for “cause” as defined in Mr. Hockridge’s employment agreement dated May 23, 2016 (“Employment Agreement”). Any severance payments, oth…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.