ALL
AllstateNYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ALL has a composite score of 30.3 and a signal label of "favorable." The score is driven by a medium confidence level of 74.7 and strengths in quality (76.5) and valuation (90.1), which is labeled as "inexpensive." However, there are unfavorable macro conditions reflected in a macro score of -7.7 and sector score of 14.6. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.48 → $4.61 (+3.0% / 30d). 8 raised, 8 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase market share in auto and homeowners insurancegrowthbehind14% progress
4/29: “CEO: 'Market share of auto and homeowners insurance increased in many states due to a comprehensive approach.'”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Policies in force reached 212 million in 2026-Q1, up from 210.9 million in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows delivering on market share growth in auto and homeowners insurance.
- 2.Expand Protection Plans and international growthgrowthbehind14% progress
4/29: “CEO: 'Protection Plans continued to expand distribution relationships and product offerings.'”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Protection Plans revenue of $613 million in 2026-Q1, up from $609 million in 2025-Q4, indicates ongoing expansion and international growth. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
- 3.Enhance customer value and lower pricesgrowthbehind14% progressprovisional
2/4: “CEO: 'We proactively reduced premiums for 7.8 million auto and homeowners insurance customers.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 6 quarters. Management reported proactive premium reductions for 7.8 million customers in 2025-Q4. However, financials do not provide specific evidence of the impact on revenue or margins, indicating limited substantive delivery this quarter.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 21%; 252d 23%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −11%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.57 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 61/100, drawdown 77/100, beta 57/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase market share in auto and homeowners insurance
GrowthFocus on expanding market share through affordable prices, new products, and expanded benefits.
BehindStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Policies in force reached 212 million in 2026-Q1, up from 210.9 million in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows delivering on market share growth in auto and homeowners insurance.
14%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Market share of auto and homeowners insurance increased in many states due to a comprehensive approach.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-29Show history (6)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Market share of auto and homeowners insurance increased in many states.'”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Total policies in force increased to 210.9 million, up 3.0% from the prior year.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'Property-Liability market share increased in non-standard auto and homeowners insurance.'”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“CEO: 'Personal property-liability policies have begun to grow due to expanded distribution.'”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Transformative Growth gained momentum with strong underlying insurance profitability.'”
- 2024-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Progress was made in executing the strategy to grow personal Property-Liability market share.'”
- #2
Expand Protection Plans and international growth
GrowthContinue to expand distribution relationships and product offerings, focusing on international growth.
BehindStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Protection Plans revenue of $613 million in 2026-Q1, up from $609 million in 2025-Q4, indicates ongoing expansion and international growth. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
14%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Protection Plans continued to expand distribution relationships and product offerings.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-29Show history (6)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Protection Plans continued to expand distribution relationships and product offerings.'”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Protection Plans revenues reached nearly $2.0 billion for the year.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'Protection Plans continues to grow internationally with policies in force and revenues increasing.'”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“CEO: 'Protection Plans continued to expand with international revenues up 30% above the prior year.'”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Protection Plans continues to grow in the U.S and internationally with revenues up 16.4% over the prior year.'”
- 2024-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Protection Plans expanded internationally and acquired Kingfisher to enhance mobile device protection capabilities.'”
- #3
Enhance customer value and lower prices
GrowthProactively reduce premiums and improve customer interactions to enhance value.
BehindStated in 2 of last 6 quarters. Management reported proactive premium reductions for 7.8 million customers in 2025-Q4. However, financials do not provide specific evidence of the impact on revenue or margins, indicating limited substantive delivery this quarter.
14%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We proactively reduced premiums for 7.8 million auto and homeowners insurance customers.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We proactively reduced premiums for 7.8 million auto and homeowners insurance customers.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'The rollout of new property-liability products, increased advertising, broad distribution and expanded retention programs are expected to drive continued growth.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
68 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALL Allstate | +30 | inexpensive | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2025-04-01)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2025-04-01)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2910d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The Registrant’s press release dated April 29, 2026, announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026, and the Registrant’s first quarter 2026 investor supplement are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, to this report. The information contained in the press release and the investor supplement are furnished and not filed pursuant to instruction B.2 of Form 8-K. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 58 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The Registrant’s press release dated February 4, 2026, announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, and the Registrant’s fourth quarter 2025 investor supplement are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, to this report. The information contained in the press release and the investor supplement are furnished and not filed pursuant to instruction B.2 of Form 8-K. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exh…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 8 - 2025-11-205mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Gregg M. Sherrill, a member of the board of directors of the Registrant since 2017 and the board’s Lead Director since 2021, will retire from the board of directors effective November 21, 2025. Richard T. Hume, a member of the board of directors of the Registrant since 2020, will serve as the board’s Lead Director effective November 21, 2025. Mr. S…
executive changeneutralscore 1 - 2025-11-056mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The Registrant’s press release dated November 5, 2025, announcing its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, and the Registrant’s third quarter 2025 investor supplement are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, to this report. The information contained in the press release and the investor supplement are furnished and not filed pursuant to instruction B.2 of Form 8-K. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 1 - 2025-10-017mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Allstate Corporation today announced changes to its senior leadership team. Effective October 1, 2025, Mario Rizzo will serve as Chief Operating Officer, responsible for the Property-Liability and Protection Services businesses, Jesse E. Merten will succeed Mario Rizzo as President, Property-Liability, and John E. Dugenske will serve as interim…
executive changeneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.