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AMAT

Applied Materials

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-05-08

$435.44+6.04%
Close 2026-05-08 · 1-day change
The bottom line

As of May 8, 2026, AMAT has a composite score of 18.6, with a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is driven by high confidence in guidance credibility (100.0) and management (84.8), but it faces elevated market risk (56.5) and expensive valuation (21.1). Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor.

Composite +19as of 2026-05-08

Price

Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.

Close 2026-05-08
Daily closes. Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event

Factor signals

Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.

L1

Thesis

is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?
F1 · Recent financial performance
weak
Bottom 30% of information technology cohort
Why this rank
  • Direction share
    1.00
  • Slope (norm)
    -0.08
  • Bonus
    0.00
Operating income, last 4 quarters ($M)
2169223317121831
F2 · Value
neutral
Mid-cohort by earnings yield
Why this rank
Price
$435.44
TTM EPS
$8.84
Earnings yield
2.0%
P/E (TTM)
49.3

Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1

F3 · Earnings quality
fragile
Bottom 20% cash conversion in information technology cohort
Why this rank
TTM NI ($M)
7,839
TTM CFO ($M)
8,719
CFO/NI
1.11
L2

Watch

has something changed worth re-reading?
F4 · Management stability
neutral
Mid-cohort activity· see deep-dive ↓
capital unfriendlyBottom 20% — net capital-unfriendly direction
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
bullish strong28 analysts, 81% Buyfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions

EPS estimate $2.87 → $2.87 (+0.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 28 covering analysts.

Rating actions

0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.

Price target activity

4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.5% above current price.

F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
2

Stated priorities

3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).

  1. 1.Grow semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026growthmixed65% progress
    2/12: CEO: 'We expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business over 20 percent this calendar year.'
    Why this status

    Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue was $7.01 billion in 2026-Q1, down 2% year over year. Despite the decline, management is targeting over 20% growth in semiconductor equipment for 2026. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.

  2. 2.Expand system manufacturing capabilitysupply chainwatchprovisional
    2/12: CFO: 'We have nearly doubled our system manufacturing capability.'
    Why this status

    Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management claims to have nearly doubled system manufacturing capability to support market growth. No specific volume or yield improvements were disclosed this quarter, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.

  3. 3.Focus on energy-efficient AI computingproductwatchprovisional
    5/15: CEO: 'High-performance, energy-efficient AI computing remains the dominant driver of semiconductor innovation.'
    Why this status

    Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management emphasizes energy-efficient AI computing as a key growth driver. Despite the focus, no specific customer or contract announcements were made this quarter, indicating narrow delivery so far.

3

Guidance track record

Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.

1 beat, 7 inside
Per-quarter detail
PeriodGuidanceActualResult
2024-01-31$1.72 – $2.08$2.13beat
2024-04-30$1.79 – $2.15$2.09inside
2024-07-31$1.83 – $2.19$2.12inside
2024-10-31$2.00 – $2.36$2.32inside
2025-04-30$2.12 – $2.48$2.39inside
2025-07-31$2.15 – $2.55$2.48inside
2025-10-31$1.91 – $2.31$2.17inside
2026-01-31$1.98 – $2.38$2.38inside

Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.

L3

Position context

how violent might the path be while I hold it?
Risk profile · realized
backward-looking
elevatedworst 12m loss −21%, typical day ±2.0%
Why this risk level

Recent vol — 30d annualized 52%; 252d 46%.

Drawdown — Max 1y −21%. Bad day move −5%.

Beta to sector ETF (XLK) 0.14 over 1y.

Liquidity — score 100/100.

Sub-scores — vol 23/100, drawdown 57/100, beta 14/100, earnings vol .

Sector regime
tailwind+15.9%sector vs S&P 500, 60d

via XLK

Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.

AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifier
HeatingManiaSquallCrisisEarnings →Mood ↑
HeatingE +0.13 · M +0.71
Single-axisCHASEz +2.97+1.285d

Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.

Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.

3

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

  1. No material changes since the prior snapshot.

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

as of 2026-05-08

4

Management scorecard

How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.

Composite84.8 / 100
Capital allocation75
Earnings discipline97
Margin discipline79
Balance sheet76
Guidance credibility100
Post-call reaction24

Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 5.9% avg surprise

as of 2026-05-08
4

What management is focused on

Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.

  • #1

    Grow semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026

    Growth

    Applied Materials aims to grow its semiconductor equipment business by over 20% this calendar year.

    Mixed

    Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue was $7.01 billion in 2026-Q1, down 2% year over year. Despite the decline, management is targeting over 20% growth in semiconductor equipment for 2026. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.

    65%
    CEO/CFO:CEO: 'We expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business over 20 percent this calendar year.'
    Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12
    Show history (1)
    • 2026-Q1Earnings call

      CEO: 'We expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business over 20 percent this calendar year.'

  • #2

    Expand system manufacturing capability

    Supply chain

    Applied Materials has nearly doubled its system manufacturing capability to support market growth.

    Watch

    Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management claims to have nearly doubled system manufacturing capability to support market growth. No specific volume or yield improvements were disclosed this quarter, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.

    No score
    CEO/CFO:CFO: 'We have nearly doubled our system manufacturing capability.'
    Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12provisional
    Show history (1)
    • 2026-Q1Earnings call

      CFO: 'We have nearly doubled our system manufacturing capability.'

  • #3

    Focus on energy-efficient AI computing

    Product

    Applied Materials is focusing on high-performance, energy-efficient AI computing as a key growth driver.

    Watch

    Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management emphasizes energy-efficient AI computing as a key growth driver. Despite the focus, no specific customer or contract announcements were made this quarter, indicating narrow delivery so far.

    No score
    CEO/CFO:CEO: 'High-performance, energy-efficient AI computing remains the dominant driver of semiconductor innovation.'
    Earnings callSource dated 2025-05-15Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-05-15provisional
    Show history (2)
    • 2025-Q2Earnings call

      CEO: 'High-performance, energy-efficient AI computing remains the dominant driver of semiconductor innovation.'

    • 2025-Q1Earnings call

      CEO: 'The industry drive to accelerate the development of advanced compute and more sophisticated AI is gaining momentum.'

as of 2026-05-08
5

How this stock is priced

Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.

Compared to peers
33higher = cheaper

Looks more expensive than peers.

Compared to its own history
3higher = cheaper

Richer than its own typical valuation.

P/E
43.6x
EV/EBITDA
37.0x
FCF yield
1.9%

P/E over the last 5 years

71 monthly points
expensiveas of 2026-05-08
7

How this compares

A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.

StockCompositeValuationRisk
AMAT
Applied Materials
+19expensiveelevated
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
+20fullmoderate
AAPL
Apple Inc
+19fullmoderate
MSFT
Microsoft
+27fairelevated
AVGO
Broadcom
+11expensiveelevated
8

Risk — how this stock moves

What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.

A typical day
How much price usually moves either way.
2.0%
A bad day (95th %ile)
A rough but not unusual down day.
-4.5%
Worst 12-month loss
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
-21.4%
Earnings-day move
How much price usually moves on earnings day.
elevatedas of 2026-05-08
9

What could change this view

Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.

Upside triggers
  • If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
  • If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-12)+4.0 pts
Downside triggers
  • If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-12)-8.0 pts
  • If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
  • If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
10

Material updates

Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.

  1. 2026-02-122mo agoItem 2.02

    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied Materials”) announced its financial results for its first quarter ended January 25, 2026. A copy of Applied Materials’ press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise sub…

    earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9
  2. 2025-11-135mo agoItem 2.02

    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 13, 2025, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied Materials”) announced its financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended October 26, 2025. A copy of Applied Materials’ press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”),…

    earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1
  3. 2025-10-236mo agoItem 2.05

    Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On October 23, 2025, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied” or the “Company”) approved a workforce reduction plan to position the Company for continued growth as a more competitive and productive organization. Applied expects approximately four percent of its global workforce to be impacted under this action and the Company to incur charges of approximately $160 million to $180 million, consisting primarily of severance and other one-time employm…

    product or strategy shiftnegativescore 1
  4. 2025-10-236mo agoItem 7.01

    and Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liability under that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing of Applied under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing. Forward-Looking Statements This report contains forward-loo…

    product or strategy shiftnegativescore 1
  5. 2025-09-267mo agoItem 1.01

    Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 25, 2025, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied”) entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) for a 364-day $2.0 billion revolving credit facility with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”), and the lenders party thereto (collectively, the “Lenders”). The Credit Agreement provides for unsecured borrowings in an initial amount not to exceed $2.0 billion outstanding at any one time. The Credi…

    capital allocationneutralscore 0
11

Score history

The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.

60 snapshots
Data freshness · As of 2026-05-08 · Macro 2026-05-08 · Sector 2026-05-07 · Fundamentals 2026-02-19 · Price 2026-05-07 · Generated 2026-05-08 · Spec 2.3

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.