AMAT
Applied MaterialsNASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AMAT has a composite score of 18.6, with a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is driven by high confidence in guidance credibility (100.0) and management (84.8), but it faces elevated market risk (56.5) and expensive valuation (21.1). Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.08
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.87 → $2.87 (+0.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 28 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.5% above current price.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
12 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Grow semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026growthmixed65% progress
2/12: “CEO: 'We expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business over 20 percent this calendar year.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue was $7.01 billion in 2026-Q1, down 2% year over year. Despite the decline, management is targeting over 20% growth in semiconductor equipment for 2026. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Expand system manufacturing capabilitysupply chainwatchprovisional
2/12: “CFO: 'We have nearly doubled our system manufacturing capability.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management claims to have nearly doubled system manufacturing capability to support market growth. No specific volume or yield improvements were disclosed this quarter, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
- 3.Focus on energy-efficient AI computingproductwatchprovisional
5/15: “CEO: 'High-performance, energy-efficient AI computing remains the dominant driver of semiconductor innovation.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management emphasizes energy-efficient AI computing as a key growth driver. Despite the focus, no specific customer or contract announcements were made this quarter, indicating narrow delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-31 | $1.72 – $2.08 | $2.13 | beat |
| 2024-04-30 | $1.79 – $2.15 | $2.09 | inside |
| 2024-07-31 | $1.83 – $2.19 | $2.12 | inside |
| 2024-10-31 | $2.00 – $2.36 | $2.32 | inside |
| 2025-04-30 | $2.12 – $2.48 | $2.39 | inside |
| 2025-07-31 | $2.15 – $2.55 | $2.48 | inside |
| 2025-10-31 | $1.91 – $2.31 | $2.17 | inside |
| 2026-01-31 | $1.98 – $2.38 | $2.38 | inside |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 52%; 252d 46%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −21%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.14 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 23/100, drawdown 57/100, beta 14/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 5.9% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Grow semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026
GrowthApplied Materials aims to grow its semiconductor equipment business by over 20% this calendar year.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue was $7.01 billion in 2026-Q1, down 2% year over year. Despite the decline, management is targeting over 20% growth in semiconductor equipment for 2026. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
65%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business over 20 percent this calendar year.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“CEO: 'We expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business over 20 percent this calendar year.'”
- #2
Expand system manufacturing capability
Supply chainApplied Materials has nearly doubled its system manufacturing capability to support market growth.
WatchNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management claims to have nearly doubled system manufacturing capability to support market growth. No specific volume or yield improvements were disclosed this quarter, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“CFO: 'We have nearly doubled our system manufacturing capability.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“CFO: 'We have nearly doubled our system manufacturing capability.'”
- #3
Focus on energy-efficient AI computing
ProductApplied Materials is focusing on high-performance, energy-efficient AI computing as a key growth driver.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management emphasizes energy-efficient AI computing as a key growth driver. Despite the focus, no specific customer or contract announcements were made this quarter, indicating narrow delivery so far.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“CEO: 'High-performance, energy-efficient AI computing remains the dominant driver of semiconductor innovation.'”Earnings callSource dated 2025-05-15Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-05-15provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“CEO: 'High-performance, energy-efficient AI computing remains the dominant driver of semiconductor innovation.'”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“CEO: 'The industry drive to accelerate the development of advanced compute and more sophisticated AI is gaining momentum.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMAT Applied Materials | +19 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-12)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-12)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-02-122mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied Materials”) announced its financial results for its first quarter ended January 25, 2026. A copy of Applied Materials’ press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise sub…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9 - 2025-11-135mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 13, 2025, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied Materials”) announced its financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended October 26, 2025. A copy of Applied Materials’ press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”),…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1 - 2025-10-236mo agoItem 2.05
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On October 23, 2025, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied” or the “Company”) approved a workforce reduction plan to position the Company for continued growth as a more competitive and productive organization. Applied expects approximately four percent of its global workforce to be impacted under this action and the Company to incur charges of approximately $160 million to $180 million, consisting primarily of severance and other one-time employm…
product or strategy shiftnegativescore 1 - 2025-10-236mo agoItem 7.01
and Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liability under that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing of Applied under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing. Forward-Looking Statements This report contains forward-loo…
product or strategy shiftnegativescore 1 - 2025-09-267mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 25, 2025, Applied Materials, Inc. (“Applied”) entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) for a 364-day $2.0 billion revolving credit facility with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”), and the lenders party thereto (collectively, the “Lenders”). The Credit Agreement provides for unsecured borrowings in an initial amount not to exceed $2.0 billion outstanding at any one time. The Credi…
capital allocationneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.