AMCR
AmcorNYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AMCR has a composite score of 14.6 and is labeled as "mild favorable." This score is driven by a medium confidence level of 74.0 and an elevated risk label. Key factors influencing the score include macroeconomic conditions related to growth, inflation, labor, and rates, with a valuation score of 70.0 indicating it is considered inexpensive. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.07
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.20 → $1.19 (-0.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.7% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
25 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve EPS growth of 12-17%growthbehind0% progressprovisional
2/3: “Fiscal 2026 Guidance Reaffirmed: Adjusted EPS $4.00-$4.15 representing 12-17% constant currency growth.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 is $4.00-$4.15, representing 12-17% growth. However, diluted EPS was $0.38 in 2026-Q2, indicating limited progress towards the annual target.
- 2.Generate $1.8-1.9 billion FCFcapital allocationbehind30% progressprovisional
2/3: “Free Cash Flow of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Free cash flow guidance for fiscal 2026 is $1.8-$1.9 billion. Cash from operating activities was $370 million in 2026-Q2, indicating progress but still far from the annual target.
- 3.Capex between $850-900 millioncapital allocationwatchprovisional
11/5: “Capital expenditure between $850 to $900 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capex guidance for fiscal 2026 is $850-$900 million. No specific capex figures for 2026-Q2 are provided, indicating limited visibility on current progress towards this target.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 43%; 252d 31%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −26%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.06 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 49/100, drawdown 48/100, beta 6/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve EPS growth of 12-17%
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Amcor aims to achieve adjusted EPS growth of 12-17% for fiscal 2026.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 is $4.00-$4.15, representing 12-17% growth. However, diluted EPS was $0.38 in 2026-Q2, indicating limited progress towards the annual target.
0%CEO/CFO:“Fiscal 2026 Guidance Reaffirmed: Adjusted EPS $4.00-$4.15 representing 12-17% constant currency growth.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (4)
- 2026-Q2Press release
“Fiscal 2026 Guidance Reaffirmed: Adjusted EPS $4.00-$4.15 representing 12-17% constant currency growth.”
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Fiscal 2026 outlook reaffirmed: Adjusted EPS 80-83 cps representing 12-17% constant currency growth.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Adjusted EPS of 80-83 cps representing 12-17% constant currency growth.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Fiscal 2026 outlook reaffirmed: Adjusted EPS 80-83 cps representing 12-17% constant currency growth.”
- #2
Generate $1.8-1.9 billion FCF
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Amcor aims to generate free cash flow of $1.8-1.9 billion for fiscal 2026.
Mixed →BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Free cash flow guidance for fiscal 2026 is $1.8-$1.9 billion. Cash from operating activities was $370 million in 2026-Q2, indicating progress but still far from the annual target.
30%CEO/CFO:“Free Cash Flow of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (4)
- 2026-Q2Press release
“Free Cash Flow of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion.”
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Free Cash Flow $1.8-1.9 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Free Cash Flow of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Free Cash Flow of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion.”
- #3
Capex between $850-900 million
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Amcor plans to maintain capital expenditure between $850 to $900 million for fiscal 2026.
Mixed →WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capex guidance for fiscal 2026 is $850-$900 million. No specific capex figures for 2026-Q2 are provided, indicating limited visibility on current progress towards this target.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Capital expenditure between $850 to $900 million.”Press releaseSource dated 2025-11-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Capital expenditure between $850 to $900 million.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Capital expenditure between $850 to $900 million.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Capital expenditure between $850 to $900 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMCR Amcor | +15 | inexpensive | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-063d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Amcor plc (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding financial results for the third quarter and first nine months of fiscal year 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The Company is not including the information contained on its website as part of, or incorporating it by reference into, this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 74 - 2026-03-101mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 5, 2026 , Amcor Flexibles North America, Inc. (the “Issuer”), Amcor plc (“Amcor”), Amcor UK Finance plc (“AUKF”), Amcor Group Finance plc (“AGF”), Amcor International UK plc (“AIUK”), Amcor Finance (USA), Inc. (“AFUI”), Berry Global Group, Inc. (“BGGI”) and Berry Global, Inc. (“BGI”, and, together with Amcor, AUKF, AGF, AIUK, AFUI and BGGI, the “Guarantors”) completed the offer and sale by the Issuer of $750,000,000 aggregate principal amou…
capital allocationneutralscore 17 - 2026-03-101mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. The information provided under
capital allocationnegativescore 13 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, Amcor plc (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding financial results for the second quarter and first six months of fiscal year 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The Company is not including the information contained on its website as part of, or incorporating it by reference into, this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed”…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2026-01-153mo agoItem 3.03
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On January 14, 2026, Amcor plc (“Amcor”) filed an amendment to its memorandum of association to effect the 1-for-5 reverse stock split previously approved by Amcor shareholders at its annual general meeting of shareholders held on November 6, 2025. As a result of the filing of the amendment, which amended and restated paragraph 6 of the memorandum, every five ordinary shares of Amcor issued and outstanding or held as treasury shares have be…
capital allocationneutralscore 3
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.