AON
Aon plcNYSEFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AON has a composite score of 1.7 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects a medium confidence level of 75.3. Key drivers include a macro score of -7.7 and a sector score of 14.6, indicating mixed conditions influenced by macroeconomic factors such as rates and growth. This assessment is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.25
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.85 → $3.82 (-0.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 10 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
4 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve mid-single-digit organic revenue growthgrowthbehind30% progress
5/1: “We are reaffirming 2026 guidance of mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth.”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $15.7B in 2024 to $17.2B in 2025, reflecting consistent organic growth. Management's reaffirmation of mid-single-digit growth for 2026 aligns with past performance, indicating delivery on this priority.
- 2.Expand adjusted operating margin by 70-80 basis pointscostbehind30% progress
5/1: “We expect 70 to 80 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion.”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted operating margin increased from 31.5% in 2024 to 32.4% in 2025, showing progress. The target of 70-80 basis points expansion for 2026 is consistent with past improvements, indicating ongoing delivery.
- 3.Achieve double-digit free cash flow growthcapital allocationbehind30% progress
5/1: “We expect double-digit free cash flow growth.”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow increased from $2.8B in 2024 to $3.2B in 2025, reflecting a 14% growth. The consistent focus on double-digit growth aligns with past performance, indicating delivery on this priority.
- 4.Expand adjusted operating margincostwatchprovisional
5/1: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 29%; 252d 24%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −18%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.62 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 60/100, drawdown 65/100, beta 62/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve mid-single-digit organic revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aon aims for mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth in 2026.
On track →BehindStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $15.7B in 2024 to $17.2B in 2025, reflecting consistent organic growth. Management's reaffirmation of mid-single-digit growth for 2026 aligns with past performance, indicating delivery on this priority.
30%CEO/CFO:“We are reaffirming 2026 guidance of mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (6)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“Aon delivered another quarter of strong performance and finished 2025 with 9% total revenue growth, 6% organic revenue growth.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“Aon delivered another quarter of strong performance, including 7% total revenue growth and 7% organic revenue growth.”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“Aon delivered another quarter of strong performance, including 11% total revenue growth and 6% organic revenue growth.”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“Aon delivered 16% Total revenue growth and another quarter of mid-single-digit Organic revenue growth, which reached 5%.”
- 2024-Q4Earnings call
“We generated 6% Organic revenue growth for the fourth quarter and full year.”
- 2024-Q3Earnings call
“Our global team delivered another quarter of excellent results in the third quarter, with 7% total organic revenue growth.”
- #2
Expand adjusted operating margin by 70-80 basis points
CostAon targets 70 to 80 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion in 2026.
BehindStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted operating margin increased from 31.5% in 2024 to 32.4% in 2025, showing progress. The target of 70-80 basis points expansion for 2026 is consistent with past improvements, indicating ongoing delivery.
30%CEO/CFO:“We expect 70 to 80 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-01Show history (6)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“Adjusted operating margin increased 220 basis points to 35.5%.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“Adjusted operating margin increased 170 basis points to 26.3%.”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“Adjusted operating margin increased 80 basis points to 28.2%.”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“Adjusted operating margin decreased 130 basis points to 38.4%.”
- 2024-Q4Earnings call
“Adjusted operating margin decreased 50 basis points to 33.3%.”
- 2024-Q3Earnings call
“Adjusted operating margin increased 30 basis points to 24.6%.”
- #3
Achieve double-digit free cash flow growth
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Aon aims for double-digit free cash flow growth in 2026.
Mixed →BehindStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow increased from $2.8B in 2024 to $3.2B in 2025, reflecting a 14% growth. The consistent focus on double-digit growth aligns with past performance, indicating delivery on this priority.
30%CEO/CFO:“We expect double-digit free cash flow growth.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (6)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“Free cash flow increased 14% to $3.2 billion in 2025 compared to the prior year.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“Free cash flow increased 13%, to $1.9 billion for the first nine months of 2025.”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“Free cash flow increased 13%, to $816 million for the first six months of 2025.”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“Free cash flow decreased 68%, to $84 million for the first three months of 2025.”
- 2024-Q4Earnings call
“Free cash flow decreased 11%, to $2.8 billion in 2024 compared to the prior year.”
- 2024-Q3Earnings call
“Free cash flow decreased 15%, to $1,672 million for the first nine months of 2024.”
- #4
Expand adjusted operating margin
CostNew since 2026-05-04Aon plans to expand its adjusted operating margin by 70-80 basis points in 2026.
Mixed →WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
50 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AON Aon plc | +1.7 | fair | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-01)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-01)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-018d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026 , Aon plc issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 55 - 2026-01-303mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 30, 2026, Aon plc issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its results of operations for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 7 - 2026-01-024mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 31, 2025, Aon plc (the “Company”) and Aon Corporation (“Aon Corp”) entered into an Amended and Restated Employment Agreement (the “Employment Agreement”) with Gregory C. Case, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer. The purpose of the Employment Agreement is to, among other things, renew and extend the term of Mr. Case’s em…
executive changeneutralscore 4 - 2026-01-074mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Reference is hereby made to the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Aon plc on March 17, 2025, which disclosed that on March 14, 2025, Eric Andersen had transitioned to the role of Senior Advisor from the role of President of Aon plc and Aon Corporation. On January 6, 2026, Aon Corporation, an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc (Aon plc t…
executive changeneutralscore 3 - 2025-10-316mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 31, 2025, Aon plc issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.