APD
Air ProductsNYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, APD has a composite score of 10.7 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a guidance credibility score of 70.0, which fell by 12.5 points, and a management score of 55.3, which decreased by 10.4 points. The overall confidence in the analysis is high at 81.2.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.17
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.31 → $3.34 (+0.7% / 30d). 6 raised, 6 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain capital expenditures at $4 billioncapital allocationmixed65% progressprovisional
1/30: “Air Products continues to expect fiscal year 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $4.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Air Products has consistently guided for fiscal 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $4 billion. This guidance has been maintained across multiple quarters, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy.
- 2.Raise full-year adjusted EPS guidancegrowthbehind6% progress
4/30: “Raising fiscal 2026 full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $13.00 to $13.25.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Air Products raised its fiscal 2026 full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $13.00 to $13.25, up from the previous range of $12.85 to $13.15. This reflects a positive outlook on earnings growth, with the company delivering on its guidance trajectory.
- 3.Provide Q3 adjusted EPS guidancegrowthbehind6% progress
4/30: “Fiscal 2026 third quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.25 to $3.35.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Air Products provided fiscal 2026 third quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.25 to $3.35. This new guidance reflects management's expectations for the upcoming quarter, aligning with their broader earnings growth strategy.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | $3.00 – $3.05 | $3.20 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $3.33 – $3.63 | $3.56 | inside |
| 2024-12-31 | $2.90 – $3.05 | $2.86 | miss |
| 2025-03-31 | $2.75 – $2.85 | $2.69 | miss |
| 2025-06-30 | $2.90 – $3.00 | $3.24 | beat |
| 2025-09-30 | $3.27 – $3.47 | $0.02 | miss |
| 2025-12-31 | $2.75 – $2.85 | $3.16 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $2.95 – $3.10 | $3.20 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 16%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 59/100, drawdown 55/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · guidance_credibility_scoreseverity 31
Guidance credibility fell by 12.5 points (from 82.5 to 70.0).
- score change · management_scoreseverity 26
Management fell by 10.4 points (from 65.7 to 55.3).
As of 2026-05-08, the guidance credibility score for APD fell by 12.5 points, from 82.5 to 70.0, and the management score decreased by 10.4 points, from 65.7 to 55.3. Both changes indicate a downward trend in these scores. The overall signal transitioned to "mild_favorable," while the confidence label remains "high."
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 63% of the last 8 guided quarters · -8.8% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain capital expenditures at $4 billion
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Air Products aims to maintain fiscal year 2026 capital expenditures at approximately $4 billion.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Air Products has consistently guided for fiscal 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $4 billion. This guidance has been maintained across multiple quarters, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy.
Capital expenditures guidance maintained at $4 billion for fiscal 202665%CEO/CFO:“Air Products continues to expect fiscal year 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $4.0 billion.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-01-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“Continue to expect fiscal year 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $4.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“Air Products expects capital expenditures of approximately $4 billion for full-year fiscal 2026.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“Air Products continues to expect fiscal year 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $4.0 billion.”
- #2
Raise full-year adjusted EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Air Products has raised its fiscal 2026 full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $13.00 to $13.25.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Air Products raised its fiscal 2026 full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $13.00 to $13.25, up from the previous range of $12.85 to $13.15. This reflects a positive outlook on earnings growth, with the company delivering on its guidance trajectory.
EPS guidance raised to $13.00 to $13.25 for fiscal 20266%CEO/CFO:“Raising fiscal 2026 full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $13.00 to $13.25.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“Raising fiscal 2026 full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $13.00 to $13.25.”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“Air Products continues to expect full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $12.85 to $13.15.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“Air Products expects full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $12.85 to $13.15.”
- #3
Provide Q3 adjusted EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Air Products has provided fiscal 2026 third quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.25 to $3.35.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Air Products provided fiscal 2026 third quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.25 to $3.35. This new guidance reflects management's expectations for the upcoming quarter, aligning with their broader earnings growth strategy.
Q3 adjusted EPS guidance set at $3.25 to $3.35 for fiscal 20266%CEO/CFO:“Fiscal 2026 third quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.25 to $3.35.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“Fiscal 2026 third quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.25 to $3.35.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APD Air Products | +11 | expensive | moderate |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-309d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise be subject to liability under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth therein.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 54 - 2026-01-303mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise be subject to liability under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth therein.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2025-11-255mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 23, 2025, Lisa A. Davis notified Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (the “Company”) that, for personal reasons, she had decided to not stand for re-election to the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”) and to retire from the Board at the conclusion of the Annual Meetin…
executive changeneutralscore 1 - 2025-11-066mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise be subject to liability under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth therein.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 1 - 2025-08-208mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 18, 2025, the board of directors (the “Board”) of Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (the “Company”) elected Howard Ungerleider as a director of the Company, effective September 1, 2025. Mr. Ungerleider, 56, is an Operating Advisor at Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, a leading private equity firm, and previously served from 2018 to 2023 as Preside…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.