APP
AppLovinNASDAQInformation TechnologyAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, APP has a composite score of 24.6 and is classified with a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.1 and high market risk at 80.5. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.15
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.69 → $3.66 (-0.7% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 87% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 43.1% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
12 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain high EBITDA margincostbehind7% progress
5/6: “CFO: 'Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q2 2026 is 84% to 85%.'”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q2 2026 is 84% to 85%, consistent with previous quarters' performance. The company is delivering on maintaining high margins, as evidenced by the consistent guidance and historical performance.
- 2.Achieve revenue growthgrowthbehind30% progress
5/6: “CEO: 'Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is $1,915 million to $1,945 million.'”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is $1,915 million to $1,945 million, showing an upward trajectory from $1,658 million in Q4 2025. The company is making progress towards revenue growth, as indicated by the increasing guidance figures.
- 3.Manage executive transitionstalentwatch50% progress
4/7: “AppLovin announced the CTO will step down, effective July 1, 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced a CTO transition effective July 1, 2026. While this is a new development, it highlights the company's focus on managing executive transitions to ensure leadership stability. The impact on operations remains to be seen.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 62%; 252d 71%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −50%. Bad day move −6%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.12 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 12/100, earnings vol —.
High-volatility growth — strong fundamentals + high realized vol. Typical day ±2.9%.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain high EBITDA margin
CostNew since 2026-05-04Focus on sustaining a high adjusted EBITDA margin through cost management and operational efficiency.
Watch →BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q2 2026 is 84% to 85%, consistent with previous quarters' performance. The company is delivering on maintaining high margins, as evidenced by the consistent guidance and historical performance.
7%CEO/CFO:“CFO: 'Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q2 2026 is 84% to 85%.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CFO: 'Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q2 2026 is 84% to 85%.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Adjusted EBITDA margin was 84% for Q4 2025.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q4 2025 is 82% to 83%.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q3 2025 is 81%.”
- #2
Achieve revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is $1,915 million to $1,945 million, showing an upward trajectory from $1,658 million in Q4 2025. The company is making progress towards revenue growth, as indicated by the increasing guidance figures.
30%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is $1,915 million to $1,945 million.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is $1,915 million to $1,945 million.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Revenue for Q4 2025 was $1,658 million.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Revenue guidance for Q4 2025 is $1,570 million to $1,600 million.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“Revenue guidance for Q3 2025 is $1,320 million to $1,340 million.”
- #3
Manage executive transitions
TalentNew since 2026-05-04Ensure smooth transitions in executive roles to maintain leadership stability.
WatchNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced a CTO transition effective July 1, 2026. While this is a new development, it highlights the company's focus on managing executive transitions to ensure leadership stability. The impact on operations remains to be seen.
50%CEO/CFO:“AppLovin announced the CTO will step down, effective July 1, 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-07Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“AppLovin announced the CTO will step down, effective July 1, 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
44 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APP AppLovin | +25 | fair | high |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-063d agoItem 2.02
of this current report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 74 - 2026-04-071mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Executive Transitions On April 7, 2026, AppLovin Corporation (the “Company”) announced that on April 2, 2026, Basil Shikin informed the Company that he will step down from his role as Chief Technology Officer, effective as of July 1, 2026. Mr. Shikin will continue to serve in a non-executive officer capacity as a Distinguished Engineer. On April 2,…
executive changeneutralscore 39 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 2.02
of this current report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 10 - 2025-11-056mo agoItem 2.02
of this current report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1 - 2025-08-069mo agoItem 2.02
of this current report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.