Ark Restaurants Corp (ARKR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.32-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARKR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -86.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 79.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 30 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARKR — earnings miss
Dated 2025-12-15
of Form 8-K and the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Except for historical information contained in the press release as an exhibit hereto, the press release contains forward…
Why it matters: The outcome will impact the lease dispute for Bryant Park Grill and Café. These locations are key revenue sources.
Watch forThe court supports Ark Restaurants. They can keep operating at these locations.
Also watch forThe court rules against Ark Restaurants. This may lead to eviction from these locations.
Why it matters: Same-store sales show how well a business is doing. Better sales mean recovery.
Supportive ifSame-store sales for Q3 show growth year over year, reversing the current decline trend.
Worry ifSame-store sales keep falling each year. This makes the financial outlook worse.
Why it matters: If casino gaming is approved, Ark's value at New Meadowlands Racetrack could rise.
Supportive ifNew Jersey lawmakers plan to vote on the casino gaming amendment.
Worry ifLawmakers do not act on the casino gaming amendment. This delays possible growth.
Why it matters: The consumer discretionary sector is going down. Better revenue growth may show a recovery.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $486 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,025 loss on $10,000 · 40.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Same-store sales show how healthy a business is. Better sales mean recovery.
Supportive ifSame-store sales increase year over year, improving from a decline of 7.5%.
Worry ifSame-store sales drop more or stay negative compared to last year.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss narrows further from $(1,808,000) in Q1 2026.
Worry ifNet loss widens or remains unchanged from $(1,808,000) in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The lease dispute impacts key restaurant revenues. A favorable outcome could stabilize cash flow.
Supportive ifThe court supports Ark Restaurants. They can keep operating at Bryant Park locations.
Worry ifThe court backs the landlord's choice. Ark Restaurants must leave the premises.
Why it matters: Falling same-store sales show problems. The company has tough market conditions.
Worry ifSame-store sales decline worse than -7.2% for the 13 weeks ended September 2026.
Less concerning ifSame-store sales stabilize or improve year over year.
Why it matters: Approval of the gaming license could enhance Ark's investment value and growth potential.
Watch forNew Jersey lawmakers plan to vote on the casino gaming amendment.
Also watch forNo action on the casino gaming amendment happens in the next year.