Ark Restaurants Corp (ARKR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.700.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARKR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 82.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
ARKR — earnings miss
Dated 2025-12-15
of Form 8-K and the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Except for historical information contained in the press release as an exhibit hereto, the press release contains forward…
Why it matters: Sales fell 6.6% and adjusted EBITDA dropped to $358,000 in Q3. A better Q4 would show the loss trend may be easing.
Supportive ifIn the December 21 earnings release, same-store sales fall less than 6.6% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA tops $358,000.
Worry ifSame-store sales fall 6.6% or more year over year, or adjusted EBITDA is $358,000 or less.
Why it matters: The current stay runs through about October 16, 2026. The three sites made up 14.5% of revenue in the first 39 weeks.
Supportive ifA court order extends the stay, or the appeal lets Ark keep operating at all three Bryant Park sites.
Worry ifThe stay ends without an extension, and Ark must leave the Bryant Park sites.
Why it matters: Ark's sales fell across the first nine months, while the consumer sector read points to shrinking revenue. Flat or rising sales would mark a change.
Supportive ifArk reports same-store sales growth of 0% or more year over year in a quarter.
Worry ifSame-store sales keep falling year over year, after the 7.2% drop in the first 39 weeks.
Why it matters: The court found that Ark was harmed by a breach of its right of first lease. A damages award could provide some recovery, but the amount is not set.
Watch forThe damages trial sets an award for Ark on its right-of-first-lease claim.
Also watch forThe trial awards no damages, or the court dismisses the claim on appeal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $524 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,571 loss on $10,000 · 45.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.