Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN)
NYSEIndustrialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.92+2.93%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASPN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, and also discussed business developments. A copy of the press release containing such announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth in the press release, except for the information set forth under the headings “Financial Outlook” and “About Aspen Aerogels, Inc.,” together with the forward-…
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this revenue target shows strong recovery and growth. It means Aspen is getting past recent problems.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported at $65 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue reported below $65 million.
Why it matters: A successful ramp-up is key for restoring production and meeting customer needs. This affects revenue growth.
Watch forManagement says they are making good progress in ramping up production at the East Providence plant.
Also watch forFurther delays or setbacks in the ramp-up process are reported.
Why it matters: Staying below this amount shows good capital management. It helps keep finances stable.
Supportive ifTotal capital spending is $9 million or less for 2026.
Worry ifTotal capital spending is more than $10 million for 2026.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it could help Aspen Aerogels. The company needs a better market environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$289 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $720 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,086 loss on $10,000 · 70.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The claims process will affect financial recovery from the explosion. Good updates may reduce financial stress.
Supportive ifA press release says there is good progress in insurance claims. This helps with financial recovery.
Worry ifNo updates or negative news regarding the claims process.