Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN)
NYSEIndustrialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$5.16+7.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 32.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASPN — director transition
Dated 2026-11-05
Director — Stacy D. Nieuwoudt: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the board, which is a routine governance action and not a departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: The claims process will affect financial recovery from the explosion. Good updates may reduce financial stress.
Supportive ifA press release says there is good progress in insurance claims. This helps with financial recovery.
Worry ifNo updates or negative news regarding the claims process.
Why it matters: The plant is still in a staged restart. Full output may ease the need for outside supply and help Aspen serve customers.
Supportive ifManagement says East Providence is back to full production. It reports no more restart delays.
Worry ifManagement reports another restart delay. Or, a later update says the plant is still below full capacity.
Why it matters: A successful ramp-up is key for restoring production and meeting customer needs. This affects revenue growth.
Watch forManagement says they are making good progress in ramping up production at the East Providence plant.
Also watch forFurther delays or setbacks in the ramp-up process are reported.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA was negative $6.6 million in Q2. Positive results would mark a clear step toward earnings recovery.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Q3 adjusted EBITDA is at least $7 million, the low end of guidance.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $7 million or is still negative.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$236 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $690 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,532 loss on $10,000 · 65.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping capital expenditures low shows good financial management. This helps maintain cash flow and support growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending is under $10 million for FY 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $10 million for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue rose to $49.8 million. A Q3 result within or above guidance would show that growth continued.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Q3 revenue is at least $65 million, the low end of guidance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $65 million.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it could help Aspen Aerogels. The company needs a better market environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.