AtaiBeckley Inc (ATAI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.39+0.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATAI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -43.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ATAI — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-16
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Agreement and Plan of Merger On July 15, 2026, AtaiBeckley Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Eli Lilly and Company, an Indiana corporation (“ Parent ”), and Albali Acquisition Corporation, a Delaware corporation and indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub ”), pursuant to which, subject to satisfaction or waiver of the conditions therein, Merger Sub will merge with an…
Why it matters: A rebound in sector revenue growth could signal improved conditions for AtaiBeckley Inc. and its peers.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Good data could help AtaiBeckley in the social anxiety disorder market. It may also support their research efforts.
Supportive ifInitial data from the Phase 2a Part 4 trial of EMP-01 shows significant improvements.
Worry ifData from the EMP-01 trial fails to show meaningful improvements.
Why it matters: The results of these lawsuits may affect AtaiBeckley’s work and image.
Watch forPositive outcome or settlement of the lawsuit from June 3, 2026.
Also watch forNegative outcome or more issues from the lawsuit on June 3, 2026.
Why it matters: Lawsuits can affect the company’s image and money situation.
Worry ifManagement will update us about the lawsuit from June 3, 2026.
Less concerning ifNo updates or bad news about the lawsuit filed.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $605 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,806 loss on $10,000 · 48.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on cash will show financial health. This affects funding for ongoing clinical trials.
Worry ifAnnouncement of stable or increasing cash and equivalents. This extends runway beyond 2029.
Less concerning ifAnnouncement of a big drop in cash position. This threatens the runway beyond 2029.
Why it matters: This merger could reshape AtaiBeckley’s future and funding options. It’s a major strategic move.
Watch forThe merger agreement is moving ahead and may close soon.
Also watch forNews that the merger faces significant delays or is at risk of falling through.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how well the company is doing with money and operations.
Watch forEarnings report shows big gains in revenue or smaller losses.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued losses or no revenue growth.
Why it matters: Approval is key for the Lilly merger. It could improve AtaiBeckley’s resources and projects.
Supportive ifStockholders approve the merger with Lilly.
Worry ifStockholders reject the merger with Lilly.
Why it matters: Keeping cash is important for funding trials and operations.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents stay steady or grow, ensuring funding until 2029.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents drop a lot, risking funding for operations.
Why it matters: Approval is needed for the deal to move forward. It affects AtaiBeckley's future.
Supportive ifAtaiBeckley stockholders vote yes on the deal.
Worry ifStockholders vote no on the deal.
Why it matters: High operating costs mean the company is using cash quickly. This affects its finances.
Worry ifOperating costs were over $30 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating costs were below $30 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit could affect the company's work and image. Investors worry about legal risks.
Worry ifA court decision or settlement that helps the other side in the lawsuit.
Less concerning ifA court ruling or settlement that favors AtaiBeckley Inc.
Why it matters: This trial is key for AtaiBeckley's lead treatment for depression. Success could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says they will start the Phase 3 ReConnection program for BPL-003 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFailure to initiate the Phase 3 trial as planned in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: These results will show how effective another treatment for depression might be. Good data could raise the pipeline's value.
Supportive ifTopline results from the VLS-01 Phase 2 study are announced in Q4 2026.
Worry ifResults show no real improvement or negative effects from the VLS-01 Phase 2 study.