ATO
Atmos EnergyNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ATO has a composite score of 15.3 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.0 and various macroeconomic factors, including rates and labor conditions. The analysis indicates potential unfavorable scenarios, such as a guidance cut and sector trends weakening, which could impact future estimates. The data is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.08
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.35 → $1.37 (+1.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase capital expenditurecapital allocationbehind30% progressprovisional
2/3: “Capital expenditures were $1.0 billion; over 85% focused on safety and reliability.”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Capital expenditures in 2026-Q1 were $1.0 billion, with over 85% focused on safety and reliability. This consistent focus on capital allocation towards safety and reliability indicates a strong commitment to infrastructure improvement, though the financials show a mixed trajectory with varying expenditure levels across quarters.
- 2.Maintain EPS guidancegrowthmixed65% progressprovisional
2/3: “Fiscal 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance affirmed in the range of $8.15 - $8.35 per diluted share.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 is maintained at $8.15 - $8.35. The financials show a diluted EPS of $2.44 in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the annual target. The trajectory appears on track with management's guidance.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 18%; 252d 16%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −7%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 74/100, drawdown 86/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase capital expenditure
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Focus on increasing capital expenditure to enhance safety and reliability.
Mixed →BehindStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Capital expenditures in 2026-Q1 were $1.0 billion, with over 85% focused on safety and reliability. This consistent focus on capital allocation towards safety and reliability indicates a strong commitment to infrastructure improvement, though the financials show a mixed trajectory with varying expenditure levels across quarters.
Capital expenditures were $1.0 billion in 2026-Q130%CEO/CFO:“Capital expenditures were $1.0 billion; over 85% focused on safety and reliability.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (6)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Capital expenditures were $1.0 billion; over 85% focused on safety and reliability.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Capital expenditures were $3.6 billion; approximately 87% focused on safety and reliability.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Capital expenditures were $2.6 billion; approximately 86% focused on safety and reliability.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“Capital expenditures were $1,730.9 million; approximately 85% focused on safety and reliability.”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“Capital expenditures were $891.2 million; approximately 86% focused on safety and reliability.”
- 2024-Q4Press release
“Capital expenditures were $2.1 billion; approximately 82 percent focused on safety and reliability.”
- #2
Maintain EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Affirm and maintain earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 is maintained at $8.15 - $8.35. The financials show a diluted EPS of $2.44 in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the annual target. The trajectory appears on track with management's guidance.
65%CEO/CFO:“Fiscal 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance affirmed in the range of $8.15 - $8.35 per diluted share.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Fiscal 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance affirmed in the range of $8.15 - $8.35 per diluted share.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Fiscal 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance expected to be in the range of $8.15 - $8.35 per diluted share.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Fiscal 2025 earnings per diluted share guidance expected to be in the range of $7.35 - $7.45 per diluted share.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ATO Atmos Energy | +15 | full | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-06)-16 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-063d agoItem 2.02
101.INS XBRL Instance Document - the Instance Document does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document. 101.SCH Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema 101.CAL Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase 101.DEF Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase 101.LAB Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Labels Linkbase 101.PRE Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover…
earnings preannouncement—score 62 - 2026-03-301mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Three Year Credit Agreement As previously reported, on March 28, 2024, Atmos Energy Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Revolving Credit Agreement (the “Three Year Credit Agreement”) with Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank (“Crédit Agricole”), as the Administrative Agent, the syndication agents, the documentation agents, the lead arrangers and bookrunners named therein, and the lenders named therein. The Three Year Credit Agreement…
capital allocationneutralscore 27 - 2026-03-301mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information described in
capital allocationnegativescore 21 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
101.INS XBRL Instance Document - the Instance Document does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document. 101.SCH Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema 101.CAL Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase 101.DEF Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase 101.LAB Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Labels Linkbase 101.PRE Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-11-056mo agoItem 2.02
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earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.