Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.63-6.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
AVTX — debt issuance
Dated 2026-11-05
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 5, 2026, Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Open Market Sale Agreement SM (the “Jefferies Sales Agreement”), with Jefferies LLC (“Jefferies”) with respect to an “at-the-market” offering program under which the Company may issue and sell, from time to time at the Company’s sole discretion, shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.001 par value per share (the “Shares”), through Jefferies. The issuance and sale, if any…
Why it matters: The planned trials need funding, and Avalo reported $472.2 million in cash and investments at June 30, 2026.
Worry ifA new cash update keeps the stated runway into 2029 and reports no financing need tied to the planned programs.
Less concerning ifAvalo cuts its runway estimate from 2029 or reports a need to raise funds sooner to support its plans.
Why it matters: An IND filing would move the new antibody closer to human testing. It would also add a second program to the pipeline.
Supportive ifAvalo files an IND for AVTX-010 by June 30, 2027.
Worry ifAvalo delays the IND past June 30, 2027, or reports that it will not file as planned.
Why it matters: The company is loss-making, and rising trial costs can shorten its stated cash runway.
Worry ifQ3 net cash used in operations is more than $56.6 million. That is over 50% above the $37.7 million used in the first half of 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash use is $37.7 million or less, with the cash runway still stated to reach 2029.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$246 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $742 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,049 loss on $10,000 · 70.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.