Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.23+1.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 85.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 118.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor s…
Why it matters: Progress in clinical trials can lead to new treatments and revenue. It shows the company's growth potential.
Supportive ifManagement shares good trial results or new drugs moving to the next phase.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or problems in clinical trials or projects.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway will show how well Avalo is managing its finances. This is crucial for its growth plans.
Worry ifManagement says cash will last more than 12 months.
Less concerning ifCash runway projected to fall below 6 months after Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: The recent change of preferred stock may show shifts in funding or investment focus.
Worry ifThe company shares news of new funding or investment plans that boost cash flow.
Less concerning ifNo new funding news or ongoing use of preferred stock exchanges.
Why it matters: This agreement may show that Avalo is making progress in its M&A plans.
Supportive ifA press release says the Milestone Buyout Option Agreement is done.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays for the Milestone Buyout Option Agreement.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$229 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $697 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,429 loss on $10,000 · 44.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New M&A deals could boost growth and strengthen Avalo's pipeline. Investors are keen on growth strategies.
Supportive ifA new partnership or acquisition was announced. This will improve the pipeline.
Worry ifNo new M&A activity or partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A full results presentation could confirm the positive topline data. This may boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifAvalo presents full results from the Phase 2 LOTUS trial at a medical congress.
Worry ifNo presentation of the Phase 2 LOTUS trial results by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Changes may affect Avalo's ability to fund its projects and keep running.
Watch forManagement says they will offer new stock to make the balance sheet better.
Also watch forManagement plans more cuts to funding for projects or costs of operations.
Why it matters: Submitting the IND for AVTX-010 expands Avalo's pipeline. This could lead to new treatment options.
Supportive ifAvalo submits the IND application for AVTX-010 in the first half of 2027.
Worry ifNo IND submission for AVTX-010 by mid-2027.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway show Avalo's financial health. This affects how they fund operations.
Watch forAvalo reports cash, cash equivalents, and investments over $400 million. This shows a strong runway.
Also watch forAvalo reports cash and investments below $400 million. This raises concerns about funding.