AXON
Axon EnterpriseNASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AXON has a composite score of 16.1, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 64.0 and elevated market risk of 64.2. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, labor, rates, and inflation. The current guidance has been reaffirmed, but there are potential unfavorable scenarios if next-quarter guidance is cut or if the industrials sector trend weakens.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.90
- Slope (norm)0.53
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.81 → $1.86 (+2.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 90% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
20 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve 2026 revenue growth of 30% to 32%growthon track100% progress
5/6: “We now expect revenue growth in the range of 30% to 32%, up from 27% to 30% previously.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.1 billion in 2024 to $2.8 billion in 2025, reflecting a 33% increase. The trajectory aligns with the stated growth target, indicating delivery on the revenue growth priority.
- 2.Maintain Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5% in 2026costmixed65% progress
5/6: “continue to expect an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25.5%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 25.9% in 2025-Q4, slightly above the 25.5% target. The company is delivering on its margin maintenance priority, with consistent performance in line with expectations.
- 3.Manage capital expenditures for 2026capital allocationmixed44% progress
5/6: “Axon expects 2026 CapEx to be in the range of $160 million to $190 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. 2026 CapEx guidance is $160 million to $190 million. The company has consistently communicated its CapEx management strategy, with guidance reflecting a disciplined approach to capital allocation.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 69%; 252d 53%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −60%. Bad day move −6%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.74 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 12/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 74/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve 2026 revenue growth of 30% to 32%
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Axon aims to achieve revenue growth in the range of 30% to 32% for the fiscal year 2026.
On trackStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.1 billion in 2024 to $2.8 billion in 2025, reflecting a 33% increase. The trajectory aligns with the stated growth target, indicating delivery on the revenue growth priority.
Revenue grew from $2.1 billion in 2024 to $2.8 billion in 2025100%CEO/CFO:“We now expect revenue growth in the range of 30% to 32%, up from 27% to 30% previously.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“We now expect revenue growth in the range of 30% to 32%, up from 27% to 30% previously.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“We expect 2026 revenue growth of 27% to 30% with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5%.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“We now expect full-year 2025 revenue between $2.65 billion and $2.73 billion, representing approximately 29% growth at the midpoint.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“We now expect full-year 2025 revenue between $2.65 billion and $2.73 billion, representing approximately 29% growth at the midpoint.”
- #2
Maintain Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5% in 2026
CostNew since 2026-05-04Axon aims to maintain an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 25.9% in 2025-Q4, slightly above the 25.5% target. The company is delivering on its margin maintenance priority, with consistent performance in line with expectations.
Adjusted EBITDA margin was 25.9% in 2025-Q465%CEO/CFO:“continue to expect an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25.5%.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“continue to expect an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25.5%.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Achieved a full-year net income margin of 4.5% alongside a 25.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Adjusted EBITDA of $206 million (25.9% Adjusted EBITDA margin) increased 46% year over year.”
- #3
Manage capital expenditures for 2026
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Axon plans to manage capital expenditures within the range of $160 million to $190 million for 2026.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. 2026 CapEx guidance is $160 million to $190 million. The company has consistently communicated its CapEx management strategy, with guidance reflecting a disciplined approach to capital allocation.
44%CEO/CFO:“Axon expects 2026 CapEx to be in the range of $160 million to $190 million.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Axon expects 2026 CapEx to be in the range of $160 million to $190 million.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Capital expenditures in the range of $185 million to $215 million.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“We expect 2025 CapEx to be in the range of $170 million to $180 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
47 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AXON Axon Enterprise | +16 | full | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-063d agoItem 2.02
in this report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
earnings preannouncement—score 62 - 2026-04-1028d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 6, 2026, Matthew McBrady notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (the “Company”) that he will not stand for re-election as a director at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. McBrady will continue to serve as a director until his term expires at the Annual Meeting. Mr.…
executive changeneutralscore 30 - 2026-03-111mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 5, 2026, Julie Anne Cullivan notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (the “Company”) that she will not stand for re-election as a director at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Ms. Cullivan will continue to serve as a director until her term expires at the Annual Meeting…
executive changeneutralscore 15 - 2026-02-242mo agoItem 2.02
in this report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 13 - 2026-02-132mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events Pursuant to a notice of redemption dated December 18, 2025, in respect of the 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2027 (the “Convertible Notes”) of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (the “Company”), the Company redeemed $840,000 aggregate principal amount of Convertible Notes on February 10, 2026, with cash, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount thereof, together with accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, February 10, 2026. Further, pursuant to the notice of red…
capital allocationneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.