AXP
American ExpressNYSEFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AXP has a composite score of 14.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.0 and reflects a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation, with a macro score of -7.7 indicating some unfavorable conditions. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.06
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.45 → $4.39 (-1.4% / 30d). 5 raised, 12 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 41% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve 9-10% revenue growth in 2026growthmixed65% progressprovisional
1/30: “We expect revenue growth of 9 to 10 percent for the full year 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $9.3B in 2025-Q1 to $10.4B in 2025-Q3, indicating progress towards the 9-10% growth target. The trajectory is delivering on management's guidance.
- 2.EPS guidance of $17.30 to $17.90 for 2026growthmixed65% progressprovisional
1/30: “We expect EPS in the range of $17.30 to $17.90 for the full year 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS was $4.14 in 2025-Q3, showing progress towards the 2026 target range of $17.30 to $17.90. The trajectory is consistent with management's guidance.
- 3.Increase quarterly dividend to $0.95capital allocationmixed30% progressprovisional
1/30: “The company plans to increase the quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Dividend per share was $0.82 in 2025-Q3, and the company plans to increase it to $0.95. This reflects a strategic capital allocation priority, though implementation is pending.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 26%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −24%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 1.45 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 55/100, drawdown 52/100, beta 55/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve 9-10% revenue growth in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04American Express aims for a 9-10% revenue growth for the fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $9.3B in 2025-Q1 to $10.4B in 2025-Q3, indicating progress towards the 9-10% growth target. The trajectory is delivering on management's guidance.
65%CEO/CFO:“We expect revenue growth of 9 to 10 percent for the full year 2026.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-01-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“We expect revenue growth of 9 to 10 percent for the full year 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“We are reaffirming our full-year 2026 guidance for 9 to 10 percent revenue growth.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“We are raising our full-year guidance to revenue growth of 9 to 10 percent.”
- #2
EPS guidance of $17.30 to $17.90 for 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04American Express targets an EPS range of $17.30 to $17.90 for the fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS was $4.14 in 2025-Q3, showing progress towards the 2026 target range of $17.30 to $17.90. The trajectory is consistent with management's guidance.
65%CEO/CFO:“We expect EPS in the range of $17.30 to $17.90 for the full year 2026.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-01-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“We expect EPS in the range of $17.30 to $17.90 for the full year 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“We are reaffirming our full-year 2026 guidance for EPS of $17.30 to $17.90.”
- #3
Increase quarterly dividend to $0.95
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04American Express plans to increase its quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Dividend per share was $0.82 in 2025-Q3, and the company plans to increase it to $0.95. This reflects a strategic capital allocation priority, though implementation is pending.
Dividend per share was $0.82 in 2025-Q330%CEO/CFO:“The company plans to increase the quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“The company plans to increase the quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AXP American Express | +14 | fair | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-045d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Exhibits are filed herewith in connection with the issuance by American Express Company (the “Company”), on May 4, 2026, of $1,750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.444% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes due May 3, 2030 (the “Notes”) pursuant to a Prospectus Supplement dated April 27, 2026 to the Prospectus dated February 9, 2024, filed as part of the Company’s Registration Statement on Form S-3 (No. 333-276975). The Notes were issued under a senior indenture, dated as of Augus…
capital allocationneutralscore 46 - 2026-04-2316d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition and
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 46 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 2, 2026, American Express Company issued a press release announcing an increase in the quarterly dividend on its common shares to $0.95 per common share, from $0.82 per common share. Such press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
capital allocationneutralscore 11 - 2026-02-252mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure: On February 25, 2026, American Express Company (the “Company”) announced plans to build a new approximately 1.95 million square foot headquarters at 200 Greenwich Street (2 World Trade Center site) in New York City. Construction is planned to begin in the spring of 2026 and is expected to be completed in 2031. The project is not expected to have a material impact on the Company’s financial results. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This report incl…
legal regulatorynegativescore 10 - 2026-02-102mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events Senior Notes Offering Exhibits are filed herewith in connection with the issuance by American Express Company (the “Company”), on February 10, 2026, of $1,350,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.009% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes due February 9, 2029, $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.456% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes due February 10, 2032 and $650,000,000 aggregate principal amount of Floating Rate Notes due February 9, 2029 (collectively, the “Senior Notes”) pur…
capital allocationneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.