AZO
AutoZoneNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AZO has a mixed analyst scoring with a composite score of -1.4 and a high confidence level of 80.1. The score is influenced by various factors, including an unfavorable outlook if next-quarter guidance is cut and a favorable scenario if the consumer discretionary sector trend improves. The current risk label is elevated, with notable strengths in management (51.6) and quality (58.1), while momentum is weak at -11.9. This assessment is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.10
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $36.00 → $35.99 (-0.0% / 30d). 10 raised, 9 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
11 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Aggressively open new storesgrowthbehind0% progress
3/3: “CEO: 'We were pleased to have opened 64 net new stores globally in the quarter.'”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Opened 64 net new stores globally in 2026-Q2, consistent with the plan to open approximately 350-360 stores for the fiscal year. The trajectory is delivering on the aggressive expansion strategy.
- 2.Increase earnings and cash flowsgrowthbehind0% progress
3/3: “CEO: 'We remain committed to a disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flows.'”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income was $468.9 million in 2026-Q2, a decrease from $487.9 million in the same period last year, indicating limited progress in increasing earnings despite the stated commitment.
- 3.Share repurchase programcapital allocationmixed35% progress
3/3: “AutoZone repurchased 85 thousand shares at an average price per share of $3,666.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Repurchased 85 thousand shares in 2026-Q2, with $1.4 billion remaining under the current authorization. The program continues to be a focus for capital allocation, enhancing shareholder value.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 29%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −25%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.02 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 57/100, drawdown 49/100, beta 2/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Aggressively open new stores
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Continue expanding store count globally to increase market share.
Watch →BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Opened 64 net new stores globally in 2026-Q2, consistent with the plan to open approximately 350-360 stores for the fiscal year. The trajectory is delivering on the aggressive expansion strategy.
0%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We were pleased to have opened 64 net new stores globally in the quarter.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-03-03Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (4)
- 2026-Q2Earnings call
“CEO: 'We were pleased to have opened 64 net new stores globally in the quarter.'”
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“CEO: 'We plan to aggressively open stores over the remainder of the fiscal year.'”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'We expect to aggressively open stores in the new year.'”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'We were especially pleased to have opened 141 net new stores globally in the quarter.'”
- #2
Increase earnings and cash flows
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on disciplined financial management to drive shareholder value.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income was $468.9 million in 2026-Q2, a decrease from $487.9 million in the same period last year, indicating limited progress in increasing earnings despite the stated commitment.
Net income was $468.9 million in 2026-Q20%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We remain committed to a disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flows.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-03-03Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Earnings call
“CEO: 'We remain committed to a disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flows.'”
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“CEO: 'We will remain committed to our disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flow.'”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flow will deliver strong shareholder value.'”
- #3
Share repurchase program
Capital allocationContinue share buybacks to enhance shareholder value.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Repurchased 85 thousand shares in 2026-Q2, with $1.4 billion remaining under the current authorization. The program continues to be a focus for capital allocation, enhancing shareholder value.
35%CEO/CFO:“AutoZone repurchased 85 thousand shares at an average price per share of $3,666.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-03-03Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-03Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Earnings call
“AutoZone repurchased 85 thousand shares at an average price per share of $3,666.”
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“AutoZone repurchased 108 thousand shares at an average price per share of $3,999.”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“AutoZone repurchased 117 thousand shares at an average price per share of $3,821.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AZO AutoZone | -1.4 | expensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-03-03)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-03-03)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-032mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, AutoZone, Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fiscal quarter ended February 14, 2026 which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 14 - 2025-12-095mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 9, 2025, AutoZone, Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fiscal quarter ended November 22, 2025 which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 2 - 2025-10-087mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 8, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of AutoZone, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the transition of William C. Rhodes, III from his current role as Executive Chairman of the Board to the role of Chairman, effective January 2026. Following the effective date of this transition, Mr. Rhodes will be compensated according to the Compan…
executive changeneutralscore 0 - 2025-10-087mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Also on October 8, 2025, the Company issued a press release announcing that the Board has authorized the repurchase of an additional $1.5 billion of the Company’s common stock in connection with its ongoing share repurchase program. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
capital allocationpositivescore 0 - 2025-09-237mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 23, 2025, AutoZone, Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fiscal quarter ended August 30, 2025 which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.