BALL
Ball CorporationNYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, BALL has a composite score of 22.2, indicating a "mild favorable" signal. The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 66.9 and strengths in management (78.8) and quality (75.2). However, the macro score is lower at 13.5, and the sector score is 8.8, reflecting potential challenges. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.54
- Slope (norm)-0.35
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.01 → $0.98 (-2.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.0% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
15 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve EPS growth of 10-plus percentgrowthmixed65% progress
5/5: “In 2026, expect comparable diluted earnings per share growth of 10-plus percent.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite the stated goal of 10-plus percent EPS growth in 2026, the financials show a net income decline from $321M in 2025-Q3 to -$208M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards this goal.
- 2.Generate free cash flow over $900 millioncapital allocationmixed44% progress
5/5: “Free cash flow greater than $900 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $1.644 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards the free cash flow target of over $900 million for 2026. However, the net income decline suggests challenges in sustaining this trajectory.
- 3.Leadership transition with new CEOtalentmixed65% progressprovisional
11/10: “The board of directors approved the appointment of Ronald J. Lewis as Chief Executive Officer.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The leadership transition with the appointment of Ronald J. Lewis as CEO is a strategic move. The impact on financial performance remains to be seen, as the net income was -$208 million in 2025-Q4, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 33%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 57/100, drawdown 56/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve EPS growth of 10-plus percent
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Ball Corporation aims to achieve a comparable diluted earnings per share growth of over 10% in 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite the stated goal of 10-plus percent EPS growth in 2026, the financials show a net income decline from $321M in 2025-Q3 to -$208M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards this goal.
65%CEO/CFO:“In 2026, expect comparable diluted earnings per share growth of 10-plus percent.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“In 2026, expect comparable diluted earnings per share growth of 10-plus percent.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The company reaffirms its previously issued full-year comparable diluted earnings per share growth outlook of 12-15%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“We remain confident in the resilience and momentum of our business as we enter the final quarter... positions us to deliver on our guidance of 12–15% comparable diluted EPS growth for 2025.”
- #2
Generate free cash flow over $900 million
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Ball Corporation aims to generate free cash flow exceeding $900 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $1.644 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards the free cash flow target of over $900 million for 2026. However, the net income decline suggests challenges in sustaining this trajectory.
44%CEO/CFO:“Free cash flow greater than $900 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free cash flow greater than $900 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Free cash flow greater than $900 million.”
- #3
Leadership transition with new CEO
TalentNew since 2026-05-04Ball Corporation is undergoing a leadership transition with the appointment of a new CEO.
Watch →MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. The leadership transition with the appointment of Ronald J. Lewis as CEO is a strategic move. The impact on financial performance remains to be seen, as the net income was -$208 million in 2025-Q4, indicating potential challenges ahead.
65%CEO/CFO:“The board of directors approved the appointment of Ronald J. Lewis as Chief Executive Officer.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-11-10Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The board of directors approved the appointment of Ronald J. Lewis as Chief Executive Officer.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BALL Ball Corporation | +22 | fair | moderate |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-054d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Ball Corporation (“Ball") issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The Company’s results and earnings information regarding its first quarter, as well as information regarding the use of non-U.S. GAAP financial measures, are set forth in the attached press release dated May 5, 2026…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 66 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 3, 2026, Ball Corporation (“Ball") issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. The release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The Company’s results and earnings information regarding its fourth quarter, as well as information regarding the use of non-U.S. GAAP financial measures, are set forth in the attached press release dated F…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2025-12-104mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 10, 2025, the board of directors of the Ball Corporation (the “Company” or “Ball”) approved the appointment of Scott Vail as Chief Supply Chain and Operations Officer of the Company. Vail most recently served as Chief Operating Officer of Reynolds Consumer Products (Nasdaq: REYN). Prior to Reynolds Consumer Products, Vail was a memb…
executive changeneutralscore 2 - 2025-11-265mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 25, 2025, Ball Corporation, an Indiana corporation (“ Ball ”), entered into a Sixth Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “ Sixth Amendment ”), among Ball, as a borrower and guarantor, certain subsidiaries of Ball party thereto as borrowers and as guarantors, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent and as collateral agent, the lenders party thereto, and the initial issuing banks party thereto, which amends Ball’s existing stock secur…
capital allocationneutralscore 2 - 2025-11-105mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 10, 2025, Ball Corporation (the “Company” or “Ball”) announced that the board of directors of the Company (the “Board”) approved the appointment of Ronald J. Lewis as Chief Executive Officer of the Company and a member of the Board, effective immediately. In connection with Mr. Lewis’s appointment as Chief Executive Officer, the Board…
executive changeneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.