Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Bark, Inc. (BARK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.36+0.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BARK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA $7M to $10M in fiscal 2027 | Adjusted EBITDA is $7M to $10M. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $7 million in fiscal 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted EBITDA was $0.6 million, within the Company’s guidance range of $0.0 million to $1.0 million, and up from $0.1 million in the prior year.” “• Adjusted EBITDA of $7.0 million to $10.0 million, compared to $0.2 million in fiscal 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style business, not yet a proven durable grower, because it remains loss-making overall and recent performance is weak. The thesis is in a watch state: profitability is improving, but revenue is guided to decline and confidence has fallen to medium.
BARK is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The pricing tag is justified, with no flagged signs of unusual fragility, though that does not resolve the weak fundamentals.
Near term, fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $325 million to $340 million is below fiscal 2026 revenue of $394.8 million, while Adjusted EBITDA guidance rises to $7 million to $10 million from $0.2 million. Recent quarterly Adjusted EBITDA progress supports the profitability effort, but a smaller direct-to-consumer subscriber base, marketing pullback, and weaker company quality are risks to execution.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether BARK can deliver its higher Adjusted EBITDA guidance while managing the revenue decline. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued strength or weakness among major consumer discretionary companies could also change the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BARK’s case depends on turning early profitability progress into sustained results without further weakening revenue. The evidence is mixed, and business quality has recently declined. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue near $332.5 million in fiscal 2027 | Bark guides revenue near $332 million in fiscal 2027. | Intact | Revenue falls below $325 million in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $78.815M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$332.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202678,815,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
$40 million share repurchase program | The company started a $40 million share buyback. | Intact | Company cancels or fails to fund the $40 million buyback | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Share Repurchase Program As previously announced, BARK continued to repurchase shares during the quarter under its $40 million share repurchase program.” “Share Repurchase Program The Company today announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $40 million of the Company's common stock to be funded by ongoing free cash flow.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.55 → $-0.99 · observed estimates
$0.39B → $0.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.45 | $352,620,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.45 | $352,620,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.55 | $393,770,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.36 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.36 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.36 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.45 | $352,620,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.45 | $352,620,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.45 | $352,620,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.45 | $352,620,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.45 | $352,620,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.45 | $352,620,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.45 | $352,620,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.99 | $352,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.