Belden Inc. (BDC)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$96.25-8.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BDC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BDC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
and in the press release (attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise be subject to the liabilities of that Section or Section 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information contained in this
Why it matters: Belden reported 11% organic growth in Q3. The tech sector trend is easing, so later growth reports will test the pace.
Watch forBelden reports organic revenue growth in its next quarterly result.
Also watch forBelden reports no organic revenue growth, or a decline, in its next quarterly result.
Why it matters: Management set Q4 revenue guidance at $960 million to $980 million. A result below that range would weaken the record-order story.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $960 million, the low end of Belden's guidance.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 revenue is $960 million or more, within or above guidance.
Why it matters: Belden signed a $100 million fiber deal for 2027. On-time delivery would support its data center growth plan.
Supportive ifBelden reports that it ships the $100 million fiber order in 2027 and keeps data center growth above 50%.
Worry ifBelden reports that the customer delays or cancels the order, or cuts its data center growth view below 50%.
Why it matters: Belden's Q4 adjusted EPS range is $2.20 to $2.35. A miss would point to weaker earnings than management's current view.
Worry ifQ4 2026 adjusted EPS is below $2.20.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 adjusted EPS is $2.20 or higher.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $424 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,619 loss on $10,000 · 36.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Belden says the RUCKUS deal can add sales and higher margins. Results tied to cross-selling would show whether the deal is paying off.
Supportive ifBelden reports named RUCKUS cross-sales and higher adjusted margins. Adjusted EPS stays at or above $2.20 per quarter.
Worry ifBelden reports no progress in cross-sales. Adjusted margins fall below the 2026-Q3 level of 17.7%.
Why it matters: Debt rose after Belden bought RUCKUS. Debt paydown would show progress toward its stated leverage goal.
Supportive ifBelden reports net leverage below 3.0x within the first full year after the RUCKUS deal, then moves toward 1.5x by 2029.
Worry ifBelden reports net leverage above 3.0x after the first full year, or raises its 2029 goal above 1.5x.