BF-B
Brown–FormanNYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, BF-B has a composite score of 18.2, categorized as "mild favorable." The score is driven by a medium confidence level of 78.4 and reflects strengths in management (57.5) and valuation (63.0), while the sector score is low at 6.1. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the data may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.13
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.38 → $0.38 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
11 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reaffirm full-year fiscal 2026 guidancegrowthmixed65% progress
3/4: “CEO: 'Our performance remains consistent with our fiscal year expectations, even as we navigate a challenging operating environment.'”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue decreased from $3.1B in 2025-Q3 to $3.0B in 2026-Q3. Despite the revenue decline, management continues to reaffirm its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, indicating a focus on long-term strategic initiatives.
- 2.Complete $400 million share repurchase programcapital allocationmixed44% progress
3/4: “The $400 million share repurchase program was completed in December 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash flows from operations grew $263 million to $709 million, supporting the completion of the $400 million share repurchase program in December 2025. This reflects a focus on returning value to shareholders through capital allocation.
- 3.Strategic restructuring initiativecostmixed65% progress
3/4: “The company incurred $19 million in charges related to the strategic restructuring initiative announced in January 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was flat at $905 million, while the company incurred $19 million in restructuring charges in 2026-Q3. The strategic restructuring initiative continues to be a focus, with limited progress in operating income growth.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 58%; 252d 43%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −35%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 1.37 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 29/100, drawdown 31/100, beta 63/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reaffirm full-year fiscal 2026 guidance
GrowthManagement continues to reaffirm its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance despite challenging conditions.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue decreased from $3.1B in 2025-Q3 to $3.0B in 2026-Q3. Despite the revenue decline, management continues to reaffirm its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, indicating a focus on long-term strategic initiatives.
Revenue decreased from $3.1B in 2025-Q3 to $3.0B in 2026-Q365%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Our performance remains consistent with our fiscal year expectations, even as we navigate a challenging operating environment.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-04Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'Our performance remains consistent with our fiscal year expectations...'”
- 2026-Q2Press release
“CEO: 'We are pleased to reaffirm our fiscal year guidance.'”
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We are pleased to reaffirm our full-year outlook.'”
- #2
Complete $400 million share repurchase program
Capital allocationThe company completed its $400 million share repurchase program in December 2025.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash flows from operations grew $263 million to $709 million, supporting the completion of the $400 million share repurchase program in December 2025. This reflects a focus on returning value to shareholders through capital allocation.
44%CEO/CFO:“The $400 million share repurchase program was completed in December 2025.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-04Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q3Press release
“The $400 million share repurchase program was completed in December 2025.”
- 2026-Q2Press release
“The Brown-Forman Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of $400 million...”
- #3
Strategic restructuring initiative
CostThe company continues its strategic restructuring initiative to position for future growth.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was flat at $905 million, while the company incurred $19 million in restructuring charges in 2026-Q3. The strategic restructuring initiative continues to be a focus, with limited progress in operating income growth.
Operating income was flat at $905 million65%CEO/CFO:“The company incurred $19 million in charges related to the strategic restructuring initiative announced in January 2025.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-04Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Press release
“The company incurred $19 million in charges related to the strategic restructuring initiative...”
- 2026-Q2Press release
“The company incurred $16 million in charges related to the strategic restructuring initiative...”
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The company incurred $12 million in charges related to the strategic restructuring initiative...”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BF-B Brown–Forman | +18 | fair | elevated |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+3.4 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-161mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 16, 2026, Brown-Forman Corporation (the “Company”) announced the election of James W. Peters as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective March 31, 2026. Mr. Peters will succeed Leanne D. Cunningham, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, who, as previously announced, will retire from the…
executive changeneutralscore 23 - 2026-03-042mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition, including the information in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for any purpose, including for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorpor…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 16 - 2025-12-045mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition, including the information in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for any purpose, including for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorpor…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 2 - 2025-10-316mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Executive Change in Control Severance Plan On October 31, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Brown-Forman Corporation (the “Company”), as part of its regular review of the Company’s corporate governance documents and executive compensation policies and practices, adopted and approved the Brown-Forman Corporation Executive Change in Contr…
executive changeneutralscore 1 - 2025-10-027mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On October 1, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company approved a share repurchase program for up to $400 million of the Company’s outstanding Class A and Class B common stock (the “Stock”) commencing on October 1, 2025, through October 1, 2026 (the “Repurchase Program”), subject to market and other conditions. Under the Repurchase Program, the Company can repurchase shares of Stock for cash in open market purchases, block transactions, purchases made in accorda…
capital allocationpositivescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.