BIIB
BiogenNASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, BIIB has a composite score of 27.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is driven by high confidence in guidance credibility at 100.0, alongside a moderate risk label and a valuation score of 76.3, indicating it is considered inexpensive. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors related to labor, rates, growth, and inflation.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.45
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.38 → $2.02 (-54.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 11 cut, 20 covering analysts.
3 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.7% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning — often a turnaround setup.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
11 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Investment for growthgrowthbehind12% progressprovisional
2/6: “Biogen updates full year 2026 guidance to reflect continued strong business outlook and investment for growth.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Despite the focus on growth, Biogen's net income fell from $634.8M in 2025-Q2 to -$202M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress. The recurring emphasis on growth investments has yet to translate into improved financial outcomes.
- 2.Revenue decline managementgrowthbehind12% progressprovisional
2/6: “Expect full year 2026 total revenue to decline by a mid-single digit percentage versus full year 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue declined from $2.6B in 2025-Q2 to $2.2B in 2025-Q4, aligning with management's expectation of a mid-single digit decline. The trajectory shows limited progress in reversing the decline.
- 3.Merger with Apellis Pharmaceuticalscapital allocationmixed42% progress
3/31: “Biogen entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Apellis Pharmaceuticals.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The merger with Apellis Pharmaceuticals is a strategic move to expand Biogen's portfolio. However, the financial impact of this merger is not yet reflected in the current financials, as net income turned negative in 2026-Q1.
Guidance track record
Last 4 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | $-0.26 | $5.47 | beat |
| 2025-09-30 | $-0.01 | $4.81 | beat |
| 2025-12-31 | $1.26 | $1.99 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.19 | $3.57 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 35%; 252d 33%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −14%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 1.24 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 45/100, drawdown 71/100, beta 76/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 4 guided quarters · 13060.2% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Investment for growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Biogen is focusing on investment for growth, including business development and pipeline expansion.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Despite the focus on growth, Biogen's net income fell from $634.8M in 2025-Q2 to -$202M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress. The recurring emphasis on growth investments has yet to translate into improved financial outcomes.
12%CEO/CFO:“Biogen updates full year 2026 guidance to reflect continued strong business outlook and investment for growth.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-06Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (4)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Biogen updates full year 2026 guidance to reflect continued strong business outlook and investment for growth.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Biogen updates full year 2025 guidance to reflect stronger underlying business outlook and investment for growth.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Biogen updates full year 2025 guidance to reflect stronger expected business outlook and investment for growth.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“Biogen increased full year 2025 guidance to reflect stronger expected business outlook for the full year.”
- #2
Revenue decline management
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Biogen aims to manage revenue decline, expecting a mid-single digit percentage decrease in 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue declined from $2.6B in 2025-Q2 to $2.2B in 2025-Q4, aligning with management's expectation of a mid-single digit decline. The trajectory shows limited progress in reversing the decline.
12%CEO/CFO:“Expect full year 2026 total revenue to decline by a mid-single digit percentage versus full year 2025.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-06Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Expect full year 2026 total revenue to decline by a mid-single digit percentage versus full year 2025.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Expect full year 2025 total revenue to decline by a mid-single digit percentage at constant currency versus full year 2024.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Expect full year 2025 total revenue to be approximately flat to increasing 1%, at constant currency.”
- #3
Merger with Apellis Pharmaceuticals
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Biogen has entered into a merger agreement with Apellis Pharmaceuticals to expand its portfolio.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The merger with Apellis Pharmaceuticals is a strategic move to expand Biogen's portfolio. However, the financial impact of this merger is not yet reflected in the current financials, as net income turned negative in 2026-Q1.
42%CEO/CFO:“Biogen entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Apellis Pharmaceuticals.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-31Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Biogen entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Apellis Pharmaceuticals.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BIIB Biogen | +27 | inexpensive | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2910d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Biogen Inc. issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The press release is being furnished pursuant to
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 58 - 2026-04-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Biogen Inc. (Biogen) expects that its GAAP and non-GAAP results for the first quarter of 2026 will include acquired in-process research and development, upfront and milestone expense of approximately $34 million on a pre-tax basis. The estimated charge is expected to impact GAAP and non-GAAP net income per diluted share for the first quarter of 2026 by approximately $0.19 per share. Acquired in-process research and development, upfront and milesto…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 34 - 2026-03-311mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Agreement and Plan of Merger On March 31, 2026, Biogen Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Biogen”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Apellis”), and Aspen Purchaser Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Biogen (“Purchaser”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, and upon the terms and subject to the conditions therein, Purchaser will…
mna activitypositivescore 27 - 2026-03-311mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Press Release On March 31, 2026, Biogen and Apellis issued a joint press release announcing the entry into the Merger Agreement. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. Investor Webcast Presentation On March 31, 2026, Biogen held an investor webcast presentation announcing the Merger. A copy of the investor webcast presentation relating to the Merger is attached as Exhibit 99.3 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and…
legal regulatorynegativescore 22 - 2026-03-111mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 11, 2026, Biogen Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Susan H. Alexander, Chief Legal Officer, will depart from the Company effective as of the end May, 2026. The Company has initiated a search to identify the Company’s next Chief Legal Officer. Signatures Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant h…
executive changeneutralscore 15
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.