BioAge Labs, Inc. (BIOA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.54-6.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BIOA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 36.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 97.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
BIOA — litigation filed
Dated 2026-10-02
Other Events BioAge Labs, Inc. (the “ Company ”) recently announced that the first participant has been dosed in QUELL-DME, a randomized, controlled Phase 2 trial evaluating once-daily oral BGE-102, an NLRP3 inhibitor, in adults with diabetic macular edema (“ DME ”), and provided updates on the QUELL-DME Phase 2 trial design. QUELL-DME Trial Design • Randomized, controlled, three-arm, approximately 180-participant trial evaluates oral BGE-102 as monotherapy and in combination with anti-VEGF t…
Why it matters: An IND filing would move the APJ program toward human testing. It would add a new clinical path beyond BGE-102.
Supportive ifBioAge files its first APJ program IND with regulators by Dec. 31, 2026.
Worry ifNo APJ IND is filed by Dec. 31, 2026, or the company reports a delay or program pause.
Why it matters: The October update says the first person was dosed in a larger DME trial. Results could test BGE-102 in eye disease.
Watch forThe trial enrolls about 180 people. Later updates show eye target engagement or better DME results with BGE-102.
Also watch forEnrollment or dosing is delayed. Later updates show no eye target engagement or DME benefit.
Why it matters: BioAge reports losses and rising research costs. Cash levels and spending will show whether the stated runway still holds.
Worry ifA later filing keeps cash and marketable securities near $381 million. It still says funds cover operations through 2029.
Less concerning ifCash falls sharply from $381.3 million, or management moves the stated runway to before 2029.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$239 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $702 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,072 loss on $10,000 · 80.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.