BioAge Labs, Inc. (BIOA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.59+0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BIOA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 36.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 92.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BIOA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-24
and this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 attached to this report, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Securities Act ”). The information contained in Item 2.02, this Item 7.01, and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be incorporated by reference into any…
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for BioAge Labs. A decline would signal ongoing struggles.
Worry ifQ2 revenue exceeds $2.77M, showing growth from Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue is less than $2.77M. This shows a continued drop.
Why it matters: A drop in cash reserves could raise concerns about funding future operations and trials.
Worry ifCash reserves are over $350 million. This shows strong financial health.
Less concerning ifCash reserves fall below $350 million, raising funding concerns.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may raise concerns about funding operations through 2029.
Worry ifCash reserves remain stable or increase above $381 million.
Less concerning ifCash reserves are below $380 million. This may lead to funding problems.
Why it matters: Starting the DME trial on time is crucial for expanding BGE-102's indications. Delays could hinder growth prospects.
Supportive ifThe Phase 1b/2a trial for BGE-102 in diabetic macular edema begins as scheduled in mid-2026.
Worry ifThe Phase 1b/2a trial for BGE-102 in diabetic macular edema is postponed beyond mid-2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$241 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $653 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,398 loss on $10,000 · 64.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how well BGE-102 works for inflammation and cardiovascular risk. This data is key for future development.
Supportive ifTopline data shows hsCRP levels went up a lot after 12 weeks. This is compared to the starting point.
Worry ifTopline data shows no big change in hsCRP levels compared to baseline.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how well BGE-102 works. Good results could help investors feel better.
Supportive ifTopline data from the Phase 2 trial of BGE-102 shows big drops in heart risk.
Worry ifTopline data from the Phase 2 trial of BGE-102 shows no significant efficacy.
Why it matters: Starting this trial shows BioAge wants to use BGE-102 for diabetic macular edema.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the first participant dosed in the QUELL-DME trial.
Worry ifNo announcement of trial initiation by mid-2026 as planned.
Why it matters: Updates on cash reserves will show if BioAge can pay for its trials and operations.
Watch forCash reserves that stay stable or go up will help support operations until 2029.
Also watch forA drop in cash reserves or a need for more funding will be announced.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means stronger finances and smoother operations. Ongoing losses could worry investors.
Supportive ifCash from operations is getting better. It is getting closer to positive cash flow by Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations is still negative or gets worse by Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Starting the Phase 2 trial on schedule shows progress in drug development. Delays could signal issues with the program.
Supportive ifThe Phase 2 trial for BGE-102 in cardiovascular risk begins as planned by mid-2026.
Worry ifThe Phase 2 trial for BGE-102 is delayed beyond mid-2026.
Why it matters: Improving net income is vital for BioAge Labs. A better result shows financial progress.
Supportive ifNet income improves to less than -$22.25M in Q2.
Worry ifNet income worsens, remaining below -$22.25M in Q2.