BioVie Inc (BIVI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.00-1.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BIVI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: The design of the Phase 3 trial will indicate how BioVie plans to advance bezisterim. This is crucial for its future in the market.
Supportive ifThey will announce the Phase 3 trial design based on the SUNRISE-PD trial findings.
Worry ifNo updates or a decision to delay the Phase 3 trial design.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below the median for the health care sector.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above the median for the health care sector.
Why it matters: If the health care sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help BioVie. It may signal a better environment for all companies in the sector.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This call will share details on the Phase 2 SUNRISE-PD trial results. Investors want to know how bezisterim may help treat Parkinson's disease.
Supportive ifManagement spoke positively about how well bezisterim works. They discussed next steps for trials.
Worry ifManagement shows worries about the trial results or delays in future studies.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$434 on $10,000 · ±4.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $886 loss on $10,000 · 8.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,752 loss on $10,000 · 57.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If BioVie’s RFP status remains weak while peers stay strong, it raises concerns.
Worry ifBioVie’s RFP status remains weak while at least two peers report strong RFP status.
Less concerning ifBioVie’s RFP status improves to match or exceed peers.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if BioVie can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of growth or continued losses.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 5% year over year.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue is going down. Losses keep happening without getting better.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it shows the company is improving. This could change investor views.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 9% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth stays below 9% year over year.
Why it matters: A clear plan for the Phase 3 trial would show commitment to advancing bezisterim. This could attract more investor interest and support future funding.
Supportive ifManagement shares the plan and schedule for the Phase 3 trial of bezisterim.
Worry ifNo announcement is made regarding the Phase 3 trial design within the next quarter.