BK
BNY MellonNYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, BK has a composite score of 6.6 with a confidence level labeled as "high" at 82.7. The valuation label changed from "expensive" to "full." The current signal is "mixed," influenced by macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.03
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.12 → $2.16 (+2.3% / 30d). 8 raised, 0 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.5% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Enhance operating leverage and efficiencycostbehind30% progress
4/16: “CEO: 'We delivered over 800 basis points of positive operating leverage.'”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating leverage improved by 800 basis points in 2026-Q1. The company has consistently focused on efficiency savings and strategic investments to enhance operating leverage, showing a trajectory of delivering on this priority.
- 2.Increase capital returns to shareholderscapital allocationbehind30% progress
4/16: “CEO: 'Returned $1.4 billion of capital to common shareholders.'”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Returned $1.4 billion of capital to common shareholders in 2026-Q1. The company has consistently prioritized capital returns through dividends and share repurchases, maintaining a trajectory of delivering on this commitment.
- 3.Drive growth in Securities Services and Market and Wealth Servicesgrowthon track100% progress
4/16: “CEO: 'Record revenue of $5.4 billion, up 13% year-over-year, reflecting broad-based growth.'”
Why this status
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Record revenue of $5.4 billion, up 13% year-over-year in 2026-Q1, reflecting broad-based growth across Securities Services and Market and Wealth Services. The company is delivering on its growth priority with consistent revenue increases.
Guidance track record
Last 4 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | $1.51 | $1.52 | inside |
| 2024-12-31 | $1.50 | $1.72 | beat |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.58 | $1.94 | beat |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.88 | $1.88 | inside |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 20%; 252d 20%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −10%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.87 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 67/100, drawdown 80/100, beta 87/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of May 8, 2026, the valuation label for BK changed from "expensive" to "full." The forward view indicates an unfavorable scenario with a composite delta estimate of -8.0 if next-quarter guidance is cut. Additionally, there are favorable scenarios with estimates of 6.57 if rates reverse to positive and 5.0 if the financials sector trend improves.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 4 guided quarters · 9.5% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Enhance operating leverage and efficiency
CostFocus on achieving positive operating leverage through efficiency savings and strategic investments.
BehindStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating leverage improved by 800 basis points in 2026-Q1. The company has consistently focused on efficiency savings and strategic investments to enhance operating leverage, showing a trajectory of delivering on this priority.
30%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We delivered over 800 basis points of positive operating leverage.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-16Show history (6)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We delivered over 800 basis points of positive operating leverage.'”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Eight consecutive quarters of positive operating leverage.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'We continued to drive significant positive operating leverage.'”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“CEO: 'Generated another quarter of significant positive operating leverage.'”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Significant positive operating leverage resulted in an improved pre-tax margin.'”
- 2024-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Significant positive operating leverage resulted in pre-tax margin expansion.'”
- #2
Increase capital returns to shareholders
Capital allocationCommit to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
BehindStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Returned $1.4 billion of capital to common shareholders in 2026-Q1. The company has consistently prioritized capital returns through dividends and share repurchases, maintaining a trajectory of delivering on this commitment.
Returned $1.4 billion of capital to common shareholders in 2026-Q130%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Returned $1.4 billion of capital to common shareholders.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-16Show history (6)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Returned $1.4 billion of capital to common shareholders.'”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Returned $1.4 billion of capital to common shareholders.'”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'Returned $1.2 billion of capital to common shareholders.'”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“CEO: 'Returned $1.2 billion of capital to common shareholders.'”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Returned $1.1 billion of capital to common shareholders.'”
- 2024-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Returned $1.1 billion of capital to common shareholders.'”
- #3
Drive growth in Securities Services and Market and Wealth Services
GrowthFocus on broad-based growth across Securities Services and Market and Wealth Services segments.
On trackStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Record revenue of $5.4 billion, up 13% year-over-year in 2026-Q1, reflecting broad-based growth across Securities Services and Market and Wealth Services. The company is delivering on its growth priority with consistent revenue increases.
Record revenue of $5.4 billion, up 13% year-over-year in 2026-Q1100%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Record revenue of $5.4 billion, up 13% year-over-year, reflecting broad-based growth.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 6 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-16Show history (6)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Record revenue of $5.4 billion, up 13% year-over-year, reflecting broad-based growth.'”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Record revenue of $20.1 billion and generated an ROTCE of 26%.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CEO: 'Record revenue of $5.1 billion was up 9% year-over-year.'”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“CEO: 'Total revenue was up 9% year-over-year and for the first time exceeded $5 billion in a quarter.'”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Total revenue of $4.8 billion, up 6% year-over-year.'”
- 2024-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Total revenue of $4.8 billion, increased 11%.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BK BNY Mellon | +6.6 | full | low |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1622d agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On April 16, 2026, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (“BNY”) released information on its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the Earnings Release and the Financial Supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 43 - 2026-04-1721d agoItem 5.02
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. (d) On April 14, 2026, the Board appointed Mr. Lowrey to its Risk Committee and Corporate Governance, Nominating and Social Responsibility Committee, effective immediately.
executive changeneutralscore 35 - 2026-03-052mo agoItem 3.03
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. Upon issuance of the Series M Noncumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, liquidation preference $100,000 per share, par value $0.01 per share (the “Series M Preferred Stock”) by The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (the “Registrant”) on March 5, 2026, the ability of the Registrant to declare or pay dividends on, or purchase, redeem or otherwise acquire, shares of its common stock or any shares of the Registrant that rank junior to the Seri…
capital allocationneutralscore 11 - 2026-02-262mo agoItem 8.01
OTHER EVENTS. On February 26, 2026, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (the “Company”) announced the launch of a proposed public offering (the “Offering”) of depositary shares, each representing a 1/100 th interest in a share of its new series of Series M Noncumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock (the “Depositary Shares”). The Offering is subject to pricing, which has not yet occurred. If the Offering is priced and proceeds to closing, the Company intends to use the net proceeds from the s…
capital allocationneutralscore 10 - 2026-01-133mo agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On January 13, 2026, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (“BNY”) released information on its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. Copies of the Earnings Release and the Financial Supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 5
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.