BKNG
Booking HoldingsNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, BKNG has a composite score of 21.9 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score reflects medium confidence at 74.7, with strengths in valuation (90.7, labeled as inexpensive) and weaknesses in momentum (11.3) and sector (12.3). The analysis is provisional, indicating that the current assessment may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.10
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.62 → $2.45 (-6.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 20 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 19 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
11 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.6% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
21 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-04-01BKNG — CEO transitionimpact 0.73
- 2026-04-02BKNG — Principal Accounting Officer transitionimpact 0.52
- 2026-05-07BKNG — debt issuanceimpact 0.40
- 2026-05-07BKNG — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balan…impact 0.31
- 2026-05-07BKNG — debt issuanceimpact 0.31
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Transformation Program savings of $550M by end of 2026costbehind0% progress
2/18: “Enabled approximately $550 million in annual run-rate savings through the Transformation Program.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has enabled approximately $550 million in annual run-rate savings through the Transformation Program as of 2025-Q4. This aligns with the raised expectation for savings, indicating progress towards the end-of-2026 target.
- 2.Active return of capital to shareholderscapital allocationbehind30% progress
2/18: “We repurchased $2.1 billion of stock in the quarter ended December 31, 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company repurchased $2.1 billion of stock in 2025-Q4, continuing its active return of capital to shareholders. This consistent repurchase activity aligns with management's stated priority of capital allocation.
- 3.Advancing use of Generative AIproductmixed0% progress
2/18: “We remain focused on our key priorities, especially advancing our use of Generative AI.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has emphasized advancing the use of Generative AI to enhance value for travelers and partners. However, the financials do not provide specific metrics to assess progress, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 40%; 252d 31%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −33%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.00 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 48/100, drawdown 34/100, beta 0/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Transformation Program savings of $550M by end of 2026
CostAchieve $550 million in annual run-rate savings through the Transformation Program by the end of 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has enabled approximately $550 million in annual run-rate savings through the Transformation Program as of 2025-Q4. This aligns with the raised expectation for savings, indicating progress towards the end-of-2026 target.
Enabled approximately $550 million in annual run-rate savings through the Transformation Program0%CEO/CFO:“Enabled approximately $550 million in annual run-rate savings through the Transformation Program.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-18Show history (3)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Enabled approximately $550 million in annual run-rate savings through the Transformation Program.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Raising our expectation for the ultimate annual run-rate savings to a range of $500 to $550 million.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“We reached a milestone with Connected Trip transactions, representing a low double-digit share.”
- #2
Active return of capital to shareholders
Capital allocationContinue returning capital to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company repurchased $2.1 billion of stock in 2025-Q4, continuing its active return of capital to shareholders. This consistent repurchase activity aligns with management's stated priority of capital allocation.
We repurchased $2.1 billion of stock in the quarter ended December 31, 202530%CEO/CFO:“We repurchased $2.1 billion of stock in the quarter ended December 31, 2025.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-18Show history (4)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“We repurchased $2.1 billion of stock in the quarter ended December 31, 2025.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“We repurchased $0.7 billion of stock in the quarter ended September 30, 2025.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“We repurchased $1.3 billion of stock in the quarter ended June 30, 2025.”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“We repurchased $1.8 billion of stock under our authorized stock repurchase program.”
- #3
Advancing use of Generative AI
ProductFocus on advancing the use of Generative AI to enhance value for travelers and partners.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has emphasized advancing the use of Generative AI to enhance value for travelers and partners. However, the financials do not provide specific metrics to assess progress, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
0%CEO/CFO:“We remain focused on our key priorities, especially advancing our use of Generative AI.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-18Show history (2)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“We remain focused on our key priorities, especially advancing our use of Generative AI.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Our innovations in GenAI are building offerings that enhance our value proposition.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
65 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BKNG Booking Holdings | +22 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-072d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Senior Notes On May 7, 2026, Booking Holdings Inc. (the “ Company ”) executed an Officers’ Certificate (the “ Officers’ Certificate ”), in accordance with Sections 2.02 and 10.04 of the Indenture dated August 8, 2017 (the “ Base Indenture ” and, together with the Officers’ Certificate, the “ Indenture ”) between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (as successor in interest to U.S. Bank National Association), as trustee (the…
capital allocationneutralscore 63 - 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Booking Holdings Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. Copies of Booking Holdings' consolidated balance sheet at March 31, 2026, consolidated statement of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and consolidated statement of cash flows…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 51 - 2026-05-072d agoItem 8.01
Other Events . Senior Notes Offering On May 5, 2026, the Company entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named in Schedule II thereto (the “ Underwriters ”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Underwriters $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes in a r…
capital allocationneutralscore 50 - 2026-05-072d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of the Registrant. The information set forth under
capital allocationnegativescore 50 - 2026-04-011mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Director On April 1, 2026, Mr. Kurt Sievers was appointed to the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Booking Holdings Inc. (the "Company") and will be joining the Board's Corporate Governance Committee. Mr. Sievers served as President and Chief Executive Officer of NXP Semiconductors N.V., a Netherlands-based semiconductor company ("…
executive changeneutralscore 34
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.