BIO-KEY INTERNATIONAL INC (BKYI)
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.81-0.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKYI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 55.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 124.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
BKYI — capital allocation — Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-08-13
Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities. The information in
Why it matters: If net losses keep getting smaller, it shows better financial health and cost control.
Supportive ifNet loss reported below $(165K) for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet loss reported greater than $(165K) for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Shipping this order would boost revenues and confirm demand in key sectors. It is crucial for meeting growth targets.
Supportive ifThe large hardware order ships and contributes at least $0.8M to revenues.
Worry ifThe order is delayed further or does not ship by year-end.
Why it matters: Achieving this growth would confirm management's commitment to expanding revenues. It would show strong demand for BIO-key's products.
Supportive ifQ3 revenues increase by at least 50% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenues grow less than 50% year over year.
Why it matters: New contracts would validate BIO-key's strategy to expand in international markets. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new government contracts in the EMEA region.
Worry ifNo new contracts are announced in the EMEA region.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$298 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $954 loss on $10,000 · 9.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,369 loss on $10,000 · 73.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Staying compliant is key for stock stability and trust from investors.
Watch forBIO-key will follow Nasdaq rules starting in July 2026.
Also watch forThere is a notice of non-compliance or new regulatory problems.
Why it matters: Staying compliant is key for investor trust and stock stability.
Watch forNo new compliance issues were reported. This confirms Nasdaq listing status.
Also watch forNew notice of non-compliance or delisting from Nasdaq.
Why it matters: New contracts would show that BIO-key is growing in government and finance.
Supportive ifLook for at least two new international contracts in government or finance.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New partnerships can drive revenue growth and enhance market presence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new partnership or contract valued at over $500K.
Worry ifNo new partnerships were announced. This shows slow growth opportunities.
Why it matters: Ending the suspension would help investors feel more confident. It would also make the stock more stable.
Supportive ifNasdaq says the company is following the listing rules again.
Worry ifNasdaq sends more notices about not following the rules.
Why it matters: More growth shows good cost control. It also means the company runs well.
Supportive ifOperating income was positive or the net loss dropped from $(165K) in Q1.
Worry ifOperating income is still negative or the net loss is growing.
Why it matters: Updates on compliance will show the company's status. This will help attract investors.
Watch forProof of ongoing compliance with Nasdaq listing rules.
Also watch forNotice of non-compliance or further delisting risks.