BLDR
Builders FirstSourceNYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, BLDR has a composite score of 4.1, indicating a mixed signal with low confidence at 55.6. The score is influenced by various factors, including an elevated market risk score of 70.2 and a low sector score of 16.7. The analysis is provisional, reflecting uncertainties in guidance and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.21
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.98 → $1.28 (-35.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 16 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 52% of analysts rate Buy.
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.6% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve 2026 revenue targetgrowthmixed65% progress
4/30: “For 2026, the Company expects to achieve net sales in the range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.82 billion in 2024-Q4 to $4.33 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards the 2026 target of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion. The trajectory is delivering against the stated goal.
- 2.Maintain gross margin targetcostmixed65% progress
4/30: “Gross Profit margin to be in a range of 27.5% to 29% for 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit was $1.58 billion in 2025-Q4, aligning with the target range of 27.5% to 29% for 2026. The company is maintaining its margin focus, with consistent guidance across periods.
- 3.Execute $500 million share buybackcapital allocationon track74% progress
4/30: “Board authorized the repurchase of up to $500 million of the Company’s outstanding shares.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The board authorized a $500 million share buyback, but there is no evidence of execution yet. The priority is clear, but delivery remains to be seen in future quarters.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 52%; 252d 48%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −51%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.72 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 20/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 29/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve 2026 revenue target
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving the projected net sales for 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.82 billion in 2024-Q4 to $4.33 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards the 2026 target of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion. The trajectory is delivering against the stated goal.
65%CEO/CFO:“For 2026, the Company expects to achieve net sales in the range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“For 2026, the Company expects to achieve net sales in the range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Net Sales to be in a range of $15.1 billion to $15.4 billion.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Net Sales to be in a range of $14.8 billion to $15.6 billion.”
- #2
Maintain gross margin target
CostNew since 2026-05-04Ensure gross profit margin remains within the projected range for 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit was $1.58 billion in 2025-Q4, aligning with the target range of 27.5% to 29% for 2026. The company is maintaining its margin focus, with consistent guidance across periods.
65%CEO/CFO:“Gross Profit margin to be in a range of 27.5% to 29% for 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Gross Profit margin to be in a range of 27.5% to 29%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Gross Profit margin to be in a range of 30.1% to 30.5%.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Gross Profit margin to be in a range of 29.0% to 30.5%.”
- #3
Execute $500 million share buyback
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Implement the authorized share repurchase program of up to $500 million.
Mixed →On trackNewly stated in 2025-Q4. The board authorized a $500 million share buyback, but there is no evidence of execution yet. The priority is clear, but delivery remains to be seen in future quarters.
74%CEO/CFO:“Board authorized the repurchase of up to $500 million of the Company’s outstanding shares.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Board authorized the repurchase of up to $500 million of the Company’s outstanding shares.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
65 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BLDR Builders FirstSource | +4.1 | inexpensive | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Builders FirstSource, Inc. issued the news release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 reporting its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 65 - 2026-04-308d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, the Company issued the news release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 announcing that the Company’s board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to $500 million of the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock.
capital allocationpositivescore 43 - 2026-02-172mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, Builders FirstSource, Inc. issued the news release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 reporting its financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 12
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.