BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC (BTI)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-11-04
$62.97+3.40%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: How peers perform can affect BTI's market position. It can also change how investors feel.
Watch forPhilip Morris International's insight score went up a lot. It is now over 10.
Also watch forA decline in Walmart's composite insight score below 10.
Why it matters: The consumer staples sector is in decline. Positive growth could signal a recovery.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the sector turns positive.
Worry ifRevenue growth continues to decline.
Why it matters: Strong GDP and corporate profits data could boost consumer spending, benefiting tobacco sales. Weak data might suggest a slowdown.
Watch forGDP growth above 3% and corporate profits rising year over year.
Also watch forGDP growth below 1% and corporate profits declining year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it may signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifBritish American Tobacco's revenue grows more than 3% each year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 1% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $248 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,150 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice on interest rates can change how much consumers spend and borrow. This impacts tobacco sales.
Watch forFOMC keeps interest rates the same. This helps consumer spending and keeps the sector stable.
Also watch forFOMC raises interest rates. This may lead to lower consumer spending.
Why it matters: If revenue growth goes up, it would show a good change in consumer staples. This could help British American Tobacco.
Supportive ifConsumer staples revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows the sector is recovering.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays flat or goes down. This shows the sector still faces challenges.
Why it matters: CPI data can change how much consumers spend and how much they pay in tobacco. This affects British American Tobacco's sales.
Watch forCPI data shows inflation is below 3%. This suggests prices and consumer spending are stable.
Also watch forCPI data shows inflation is above 5%. This means consumer spending may face pressure.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector. This would help British American Tobacco stand out in a maturing market.
Supportive ifRevenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 2% year over year.