BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC (BTI)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
$55.35-1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can affect how much people spend and borrow.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This affects how much consumers spend on tobacco.
Watch forFOMC raises rates, causing a clear drop in consumer spending.
Also watch forFOMC keeps rates the same, and consumer spending stays steady or goes up.
Why it matters: The consumer staples sector is in decline. Positive growth could signal a recovery.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the sector turns positive.
Worry ifRevenue growth continues to decline.
Why it matters: How peers perform can affect BTI's market position. It can also change how investors feel.
Watch forPhilip Morris International's insight score went up a lot. It is now over 10.
Also watch forA decline in Walmart's composite insight score below 10.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $244 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,702 loss on $10,000 · 17.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: CPI data affects how much people spend and the prices British American Tobacco can set. High inflation can hurt sales.
Watch forCPI data shows a significant drop in inflation rates.
Also watch forCPI data shows inflation rates rising sharply.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it may signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifBritish American Tobacco's revenue grows more than 3% each year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: GDP data can signal overall economic health. Strong GDP may boost consumer confidence and spending.
Watch forGDP data shows growth above expectations.
Also watch forGDP data shows contraction or weak growth.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth may show a recovery in the declining sector. This could help British American Tobacco.
Supportive ifThe Consumer Staples sector shows positive revenue growth each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: More claims might show economic weakness. This could hurt consumer spending on tobacco products.
Worry ifWeekly unemployment claims are over 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Less concerning ifWeekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Why it matters: High inflation may change how much consumers spend on tobacco products.
Worry ifCPI increases by more than 0.5% month over month.
Less concerning ifCPI increases by less than 0.2% month over month.
Why it matters: More people losing jobs may lower how much consumers spend. This can hurt tobacco sales.
Worry ifUnemployment claims go over 300,000. This shows the job market is getting weaker.
Less concerning ifUnemployment claims fall below 250,000, suggesting a strong job market.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifRevenue growth is speeding up again toward past highs of over 5%.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains stagnant or declines further.
Why it matters: PPI data can change costs for British American Tobacco. This can affect profits.
Watch forPPI shows a decrease, suggesting lower input costs for the company.
Also watch forPPI shows an increase, indicating rising input costs.
Why it matters: CPI data can change how much consumers spend. It can also affect prices.
Watch forCPI shows a drop. This means consumer buying power is stable or getting better.
Also watch forCPI shows a rise. This means consumer buying power is getting weaker.