CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC (CAI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.07-0.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 305 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 16.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 399 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CAI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
disclosure. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth in such filing.
Why it matters: Confirming or raising revenue guidance would show strong demand and growth momentum.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue will be between $1.03 billion and $1.04 billion.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q3 revenue guidance to less than $1.03 billion.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth target would confirm the company's strong demand and execution. It shows Caris is on track to achieve its revenue guidance for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth of 27% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth falls below 25% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show problems in keeping demand for services.
Worry ifGrowth in clinical therapy selection was under 20% from last year.
Less concerning ifClinical therapy selection growth is 20% or more compared to last year.
Why it matters: Falling short of this growth could signal weakening demand for Caris' services.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 27% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 27% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$243 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $629 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,825 loss on $10,000 · 58.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress on Caris Detect can help Caris do better in early cancer detection.
Supportive ifGood results from clinical trials or partnerships for Caris Detect.
Worry ifNegative trial results or delays in the launch of Caris Detect.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks can show how much management trusts the stock.
Supportive ifNews of more share buybacks beyond the current $100 million plan.
Worry ifNo updates or a halt to the share repurchase program.