CARIS LIFE SCIENCES INC (CAI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.03-21.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 347 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
CAI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
disclosure. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth in such filing.
Why it matters: Caris raised its 2026 revenue range to $1.03–$1.04 billion. Q3 results will show whether growth stays on that path.
Supportive ifQ3 results keep full-year revenue guidance at $1.03–$1.04 billion or raise it again.
Worry ifCaris cuts full-year revenue guidance below $1.03 billion.
Why it matters: Caris launched its early cancer blood test. Evidence of real use would support the launch; slow uptake would leave its market value unclear.
Watch forCaris reports more use of Caris Detect tests and names a measure of clinical adoption.
Also watch forCaris reports delayed rollout, low use, or a pause in the Caris Detect launch.
Why it matters: The company has a $100 million share repurchase program, with $82.1 million still available. Updates will show how much it uses.
Supportive ifA filing or earnings update reports share buybacks. These bring the remaining authorization below $82.1 million.
Worry ifCaris reports no purchases and keeps the full $82.1 million available in its next update.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin rose to 68% from 63% a year earlier. A drop could weaken the gains from higher case volume and pricing.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 63%, the Q2 2025 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin stays at or above 68%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$221 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $651 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,334 loss on $10,000 · 53.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.