CARR
Carrier GlobalNYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CARR has a composite score of 9.0 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects a medium confidence level of 64.6 and is influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and sector trends. Key drivers include macro growth, labor, rates, and inflation, with potential scenarios indicating both favorable and unfavorable outcomes based on guidance changes and sector trends. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.14
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.83 → $0.82 (-1.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 10 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.0% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Accelerate growth in HVAC and aftermarketgrowthbehind18% progressprovisional
2/5: “Carrier expects continued double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 4 quarters. Revenue was $5.37B in 2025-Q4, down from $5.58B in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress in accelerating growth. Management's focus on HVAC and aftermarket growth has not yet translated into revenue gains.
- 2.Maintain full-year financial outlookgrowthbehind18% progress
4/30: “We are reaffirming our full-year outlook for revenue and adjusted EPS.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Guidance for 2026 revenue is $22B, consistent with prior outlooks. Despite management's reaffirmation, revenue in 2025-Q4 was $5.37B, down from $5.58B in 2025-Q3, suggesting challenges in maintaining growth trajectory.
- 3.Execute share repurchasescapital allocationmixed44% progressprovisional
2/5: “Carrier plans ~$1.5 billion in share repurchases.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Carrier plans ~$1.5 billion in share repurchases, but no specific buyback activity is reported in the financials. Execution remains to be seen, with no buyback shares recorded in recent quarters.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 52%; 252d 34%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −37%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.43 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 43/100, drawdown 25/100, beta 57/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Accelerate growth in HVAC and aftermarket
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on accelerating growth in the HVAC and aftermarket segments.
BehindStated in 2 of last 4 quarters. Revenue was $5.37B in 2025-Q4, down from $5.58B in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress in accelerating growth. Management's focus on HVAC and aftermarket growth has not yet translated into revenue gains.
18%CEO/CFO:“Carrier expects continued double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-05Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Carrier expects continued double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“We remain committed to accelerating growth driven by differentiated products, aftermarket offerings and system solutions.”
- #2
Maintain full-year financial outlook
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Commitment to maintaining the full-year financial outlook for revenue and EPS.
BehindStated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Guidance for 2026 revenue is $22B, consistent with prior outlooks. Despite management's reaffirmation, revenue in 2025-Q4 was $5.37B, down from $5.58B in 2025-Q3, suggesting challenges in maintaining growth trajectory.
18%CEO/CFO:“We are reaffirming our full-year outlook for revenue and adjusted EPS.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We are reaffirming our full-year outlook for revenue and adjusted EPS.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Expecting full-year 2025 sales of ~$22 billion and adjusted EPS of ~$2.65.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“We are maintaining our full-year outlook for sales, adjusted operating margin expansion and adjusted EPS.”
- #3
Execute share repurchases
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Plan to execute approximately $1.5 billion in share repurchases.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Carrier plans ~$1.5 billion in share repurchases, but no specific buyback activity is reported in the financials. Execution remains to be seen, with no buyback shares recorded in recent quarters.
44%CEO/CFO:“Carrier plans ~$1.5 billion in share repurchases.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-05Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Carrier plans ~$1.5 billion in share repurchases.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
14 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CARR Carrier Global | +9.0 | fair | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Carrier Global Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results. The press release issued April 30, 2026, is furnished herewith as Exhibit No. 99 to this Report, and shall not be deemed filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed to be i…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Carrier Global Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter 2025 results. The press release issued February 5, 2026 is furnished herewith as Exhibit No. 99 to this Report, and shall not be deemed filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed to…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-09-048mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 3, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Carrier Global Corporation (the “ Company ”) appointed Ms. Beril Yildiz as Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, with Ms. Yildiz commencing employment with the Company on September 22, 2025 (the “ Commencement Date ”). As disclosed in a Current Report on Form 8-K fil…
executive changeneutralscore 0 - 2025-06-0511mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 5, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation (“Carrier” or the “Company”) repurchased 4,267,425 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Common Stock”) from Viessmann Traeger HoldCo GmbH (“Viessmann HoldCo”), an entity controlled by Maximilian Viessmann, one of the Company’s directors, for an aggregate purchase price of $300 million. The price per share of $70.30 represented a 1.5406% discount from the closing price of the Common Stock on…
capital allocationpositivescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.