CASY
Casey'sNASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CASY has a mixed analyst signal with a composite score of -0.9. The score is influenced by various factors, including a medium confidence level of 79.3 and a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions related to labor, inflation, rates, and growth. The analysis is provisional, reflecting recent changes in guidance and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.09
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $6.35 → $6.37 (+0.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 61% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.7% above current price.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026growthbehind0% progress
3/9: “The Company expects to open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company has consistently guided to opening at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026. As of the latest quarter, there is no specific update on the number of stores opened, indicating limited progress in achieving this target so far.
- 2.Capex expected to be approximately $600 millioncapital allocationbehind30% progress
3/9: “The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Company has maintained its guidance for capital expenditures at approximately $600 million for fiscal 2026. There is no specific update on the actual capex spent, indicating persistent statement but limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 3.Increase inside same-store sales by 3.5% to 4.5%growthbehind0% progress
3/9: “The Company now expects inside same-store sales to increase 3.5% to 4.5%.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The Company expects inside same-store sales to increase by 3.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026. Inside same-store sales increased 4.0% in the latest quarter, aligning with the lower end of the guidance range, indicating initial progress.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 26%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −9%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 0.70 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 58/100, drawdown 81/100, beta 70/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026
GrowthCasey's plans to open at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026 through a mix of M&A and new store construction.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company has consistently guided to opening at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026. As of the latest quarter, there is no specific update on the number of stores opened, indicating limited progress in achieving this target so far.
0%CEO/CFO:“The Company expects to open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-09Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-09Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company expects to open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company expects to open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Company expects to open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026.”
- #2
Capex expected to be approximately $600 million
Capital allocationCasey's plans to allocate approximately $600 million for capital expenditures in fiscal 2026.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Company has maintained its guidance for capital expenditures at approximately $600 million for fiscal 2026. There is no specific update on the actual capex spent, indicating persistent statement but limited substantive delivery this quarter.
30%CEO/CFO:“The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-09Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-09Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”
- #3
Increase inside same-store sales by 3.5% to 4.5%
GrowthCasey's aims to increase inside same-store sales by 3.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The Company expects inside same-store sales to increase by 3.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026. Inside same-store sales increased 4.0% in the latest quarter, aligning with the lower end of the guidance range, indicating initial progress.
0%CEO/CFO:“The Company now expects inside same-store sales to increase 3.5% to 4.5%.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-09Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-09Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The Company now expects inside same-store sales to increase 3.5% to 4.5%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CASY Casey's | -0.9 | expensive | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-03-09)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-03-09)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-092mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On March 9, 2026, Casey's General Stores, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended January 31, 2026 (the "Press Release"). A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 18 - 2025-12-095mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On December 9, 2025, Casey's General Stores, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended October 31, 2025 (the "Press Release"). A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.