CEG
Constellation EnergyNASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CEG has a composite score of 16.4 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 33.9 and a management score of 65.2. The analysis is provisional and reflects current conditions, with key drivers being macroeconomic factors such as rates, labor, inflation, and growth.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.20
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.53 → $2.53 (-0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Complete acquisition of Calpinecapital allocationmixed44% progress
2/24: “CEO: 'Completed acquisition of Calpine, expanding our generation portfolio.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The acquisition of Calpine was completed on January 7, 2026, as announced in the press release. This strategic move is expected to enhance Constellation's generation portfolio and commercial platform, aligning with management's stated priority.
- 2.Initiate 2026 EPS guidancegrowthbehind14% progress
3/31: “Guidance: 'Initiating 2026 Adjusted Operating Earnings* guidance of $11.00 – $12.00 per share.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management initiated 2026 EPS guidance with a range of $11.00 to $12.00 per share. This aligns with their priority to provide clear financial expectations. However, the financials show a decrease in net income from $3,749 million in 2024 to $2,319 million in 2025, indicating challenges in meeting growth targets.
- 3.Increase annual dividend by 10%capital allocationmixed44% progress
2/24: “Press Release: 'Increased the annual per share dividend by 10%, and expect to grow the dividend per share by another 10% in 2026.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management announced a 10% increase in the annual dividend per share, with plans for another 10% increase in 2026. This reflects a commitment to returning value to shareholders. The dividend per share increased from $0.3525 in 2025-Q1 to $0.4265 in 2025-Q4, showing progress in this priority.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 48%; 252d 45%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −39%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.10 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 25/100, drawdown 23/100, beta 10/100, earnings vol —.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Complete acquisition of Calpine
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Finalize the acquisition of Calpine to expand generation portfolio and enhance commercial platform.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The acquisition of Calpine was completed on January 7, 2026, as announced in the press release. This strategic move is expected to enhance Constellation's generation portfolio and commercial platform, aligning with management's stated priority.
44%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Completed acquisition of Calpine, expanding our generation portfolio.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-24Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Completed acquisition of Calpine, expanding our generation portfolio.'”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'We are on track to complete the Calpine acquisition.'”
- #2
Initiate 2026 EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Provide guidance for 2026 EPS to align investor expectations with company performance.
BehindNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Management initiated 2026 EPS guidance with a range of $11.00 to $12.00 per share. This aligns with their priority to provide clear financial expectations. However, the financials show a decrease in net income from $3,749 million in 2024 to $2,319 million in 2025, indicating challenges in meeting growth targets.
14%CEO/CFO:“Guidance: 'Initiating 2026 Adjusted Operating Earnings* guidance of $11.00 – $12.00 per share.'”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-31Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Guidance: 'Initiating 2026 Adjusted Operating Earnings* guidance of $11.00 – $12.00 per share.'”
- #3
Increase annual dividend by 10%
Capital allocationPlan to grow the annual dividend per share by 10% in 2026.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Management announced a 10% increase in the annual dividend per share, with plans for another 10% increase in 2026. This reflects a commitment to returning value to shareholders. The dividend per share increased from $0.3525 in 2025-Q1 to $0.4265 in 2025-Q4, showing progress in this priority.
44%CEO/CFO:“Press Release: 'Increased the annual per share dividend by 10%, and expect to grow the dividend per share by another 10% in 2026.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-24Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-24Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Press Release: 'Increased the annual per share dividend by 10%, and expect to grow the dividend per share by another 10% in 2026.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
50 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
AEP American Electric Power | +18 | full | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently INITIATED as of 2026-03-31)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently INITIATED as of 2026-03-31)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2019d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On January 7, 2026, Constellation Energy Corporation (Nasdaq: CEG) (“CEG Parent”) and Constellation Energy Generation, LLC, a Pennsylvania limited liability company (“Constellation”) completed the previously announced transactions contemplated by the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated January 10, 2025 (the “Merger Agreement”), by and among Calpine Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“Calpine”), certain wholly-owned direct and indirect subsidiaries of Calpine and CEG Parent, and…
mna activitypositivescore 33
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.