CF
CF IndustriesNYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CF has a composite score of 23.3 and a signal label of "mild_favorable." This change reflects a significant increase in company momentum, which rose by 60.0 points to 55.1, and an improvement in valuation, which increased by 36.5 points to 64.6. The composite insight score also rose by 23.7 points to 23.3. The current analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.08
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.96 → $5.41 (+36.6% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.5% above current price.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning — often a turnaround setup.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain CAPEX guidance for 2026capital allocationmixed30% progress
5/6: “Management projects capital expenditures for full year 2026 will be approximately $1.3 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has consistently projected capital expenditures for full year 2026 to be approximately $1.3 billion. This guidance remains unchanged, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy.
- 2.Focus on Blue Point JV CAPEXcapital allocationmixed30% progress
2/18: “Total capital expenditures expected to be ~$1.3 billion, of which ~$600 million is for the Blue Point JV.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management has allocated approximately $600 million of the 2026 CAPEX to the Blue Point JV. This indicates a strategic focus on joint ventures, but further updates on execution are needed for full assessment.
- 3.Achieve $2B FCF in 2025capital allocationwatchprovisional
11/5: “33% to ~$2B FCF.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has consistently aimed for approximately $2 billion in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. However, the financials show a negative cash from operating activities of -$1.54 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards this target.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 57%; 252d 40%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −25%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.05 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 33/100, drawdown 50/100, beta 5/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 100
Company momentum rose by 60.0 points (from -4.9 to 55.1).
- score change · valuation_scoreseverity 73
Valuation rose by 36.5 points (from 28.1 to 64.6).
- score change · composite_insight_scoreseverity 47
Composite insight rose by 23.7 points (from -0.4 to 23.3).
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'fair'.
As of 2026-05-08, the company momentum score rose by 60.0 points, from -4.9 to 55.1. The valuation score increased by 36.5 points, from 28.1 to 64.6. The composite insight score improved by 23.7 points, from -0.4 to 23.3. The signal label changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable', and the valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'fair'.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain CAPEX guidance for 2026
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-06Management projects capital expenditures for full year 2026 will be approximately $1.3 billion.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has consistently projected capital expenditures for full year 2026 to be approximately $1.3 billion. This guidance remains unchanged, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy.
30%CEO/CFO:“Management projects capital expenditures for full year 2026 will be approximately $1.3 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Management projects capital expenditures for full year 2026 will be approximately $1.3 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Management projects capital expenditures for full year 2026 will be approximately $1.3 billion.”
- #2
Focus on Blue Point JV CAPEX
Capital allocationApproximately $600 million of the 2026 CAPEX is allocated to the Blue Point JV.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Management has allocated approximately $600 million of the 2026 CAPEX to the Blue Point JV. This indicates a strategic focus on joint ventures, but further updates on execution are needed for full assessment.
Approximately $600 million is for the Blue Point JV30%CEO/CFO:“Total capital expenditures expected to be ~$1.3 billion, of which ~$600 million is for the Blue Point JV.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-18Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Total capital expenditures expected to be ~$1.3 billion, of which ~$600 million is for the Blue Point JV.”
- #3
Achieve $2B FCF in 2025
Capital allocationManagement aims for approximately $2 billion in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has consistently aimed for approximately $2 billion in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. However, the financials show a negative cash from operating activities of -$1.54 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards this target.
Management aims for approximately $2 billion in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025No scoreCEO/CFO:“33% to ~$2B FCF.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-11-05Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-11-05provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“33% to ~$2B FCF.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“33% to ~$2B FCF.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
65 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CF CF Industries | +23 | fair | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. will host a conference call discussing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, at which the presentation attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 will be used. The information set forth herein, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing u…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 75 - 2026-05-062d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth herein, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 75 - 2026-05-053d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 5, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (“CF Industries” or the “Company”) announced that Andrew T. Scribner has been elected executive vice president and chief financial officer (principal financial officer), effective May 26, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Scribner, 47, joins CF Industries from Kimberly-Clark Corporation, where Mr. Scribne…
executive changeneutralscore 75 - 2026-03-161mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure On March 15, 2026, CF Industries Sales, LLC and CF Industries Nitrogen LLC, both subsidiaries of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (collectively, the “Company”) signed an agreement to settle litigation with Orica International Pte Ltd and certain other affiliates of Orica Ltd. (“Orica”) and Nelson Brothers, Inc. and Nelson Brothers LLC (“Nelson Brothers”). In connection with the resolution of the litigation pursuant to the settlement, Orica has agreed to pay the Company $1…
legal regulatorynegativescore 15 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. will host a conference call discussing its results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, at which the presentation attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 will be used. The information set forth herein, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by referen…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 11
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.