CHRW
C.H. RobinsonNASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CHRW has a composite score of 18.7 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 75.8 and reflects strengths in management (67.5) and quality (68.0), while the sector score is lower at 16.7. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the current assessment may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.04
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.53 → $1.52 (-0.7% / 30d). 9 raised, 12 cut, 23 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Manage capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/29: “Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be $75 million to $85 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be $75 million to $85 million. The company has consistently provided guidance on capex, but the status is currently behind, indicating limited progress in managing within the set range.
- 2.Maintain effective tax rateregulatorywatchprovisional
4/29: “For 2026, we expect our full-year effective tax rate to be 18% to 20%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company expects the full-year effective tax rate to be 18% to 20% for 2026. This priority has been consistently communicated, but the status is on watch, indicating potential challenges in maintaining the target range.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 46%; 252d 41%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −19%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.93 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 31/100, drawdown 61/100, beta 93/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Manage capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Maintain capital expenditures within the guidance range of $75 million to $85 million for 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be $75 million to $85 million. The company has consistently provided guidance on capex, but the status is currently behind, indicating limited progress in managing within the set range.
35%CEO/CFO:“Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be $75 million to $85 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be $75 million to $85 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be $65 million to $75 million.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be $65 million to $75 million.”
- #2
Maintain effective tax rate
RegulatoryNew since 2026-05-04Ensure the full-year effective tax rate remains within the 18% to 20% range for 2026.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company expects the full-year effective tax rate to be 18% to 20% for 2026. This priority has been consistently communicated, but the status is on watch, indicating potential challenges in maintaining the target range.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“For 2026, we expect our full-year effective tax rate to be 18% to 20%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For 2026, we expect our full-year effective tax rate to be 18% to 20%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“For 2025, we expect our full-year effective tax rate to be 18% to 20%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“For 2025, we expect our full-year effective tax rate to be 18% to 20%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
68 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHRW C.H. Robinson | +19 | full | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is being "furnished" in accordance with the General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 53 - 2026-01-283mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is being "furnished" in accordance with the General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2025-11-076mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously reported, on August 7, 2025, Edward G. Feitzinger was elected as a director of the Company, effective immediately. On November 6, 2025, the Board of Directors appointed Mr. Feitzinger to serve on the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors.
executive changeneutralscore 1 - 2025-08-278mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 25, 2025, Henry W. “Jay” Winship resigned from the Board of Directors of C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (the “Company”), effective immediately. Mr. Winship’s resignation was not due to a disagreement on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices.
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.