CME
CME GroupNASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CME has a composite score of 6.9, with a signal label of "mixed." The score is influenced by a high confidence level of 83.4 and a moderate risk label, with notable strengths in quality (75.4) and guidance credibility (73.8). However, it faces challenges from macro factors, including a macro score of -7.7 and momentum at -9.7.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.04
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.03 → $2.98 (-1.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 8 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve record revenue and earningsgrowthmixed63% progressprovisional
2/4: “CME Group: 'Last year, CME Group delivered the best year in our history and our fourth consecutive year of record revenue.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $1.41B in 2025-Q4 and $1.54B in 2025-Q3. Despite the stated goal of record revenue, the actual figures show a decline from Q3 to Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving consecutive record quarters.
- 2.Maintain strong operating incomegrowthmixed63% progressprovisional
2/4: “CME Group: 'Adjusted operating income and adjusted net income reached record levels.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $870M in 2025-Q4, down from $972.6M in 2025-Q3. Despite the focus on maintaining strong operating income, the figures show a decline, indicating limited progress in sustaining record levels.
- 3.EPS guidance for 2026-Q2growthbehind0% progress
4/22: “CME Group: 'Guidance for EPS is set at a low of $3.18 for Q2 2026.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. EPS guidance low is $3.18 for 2026-Q2. This is a new guidance figure, and its impact on actual EPS performance will be assessed in future quarters.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-30 | $1.60 | $1.64 | inside |
| 2022-06-30 | $2.11 | $1.97 | miss |
| 2023-06-30 | $2.42 | $2.30 | inside |
| 2023-09-30 | $2.30 | $2.25 | inside |
| 2023-12-31 | $2.25 | $2.37 | beat |
| 2024-06-30 | $2.50 | $2.56 | inside |
| 2025-06-30 | $2.80 | $2.96 | beat |
| 2025-12-31 | $2.49 | $2.77 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 20%; 252d 19%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −12%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 68/100, drawdown 77/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 63% of the last 8 guided quarters · 1.7% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve record revenue and earnings
GrowthCME Group aims to continue delivering record revenue and earnings per share.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $1.41B in 2025-Q4 and $1.54B in 2025-Q3. Despite the stated goal of record revenue, the actual figures show a decline from Q3 to Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving consecutive record quarters.
63%CEO/CFO:“CME Group: 'Last year, CME Group delivered the best year in our history and our fourth consecutive year of record revenue.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CME Group delivered the best year in our history and our fourth consecutive year of record revenue.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CME Group will hold a Q&A conference call to discuss third-quarter 2025 results.”
- #2
Maintain strong operating income
GrowthCME Group focuses on sustaining strong operating income levels.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $870M in 2025-Q4, down from $972.6M in 2025-Q3. Despite the focus on maintaining strong operating income, the figures show a decline, indicating limited progress in sustaining record levels.
63%CEO/CFO:“CME Group: 'Adjusted operating income and adjusted net income reached record levels.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Adjusted operating income and adjusted net income reached record levels.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“CME Group will hold a Q&A conference call to discuss third-quarter 2025 results.”
- #3
EPS guidance for 2026-Q2
GrowthCME Group provided EPS guidance for the second quarter of 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. EPS guidance low is $3.18 for 2026-Q2. This is a new guidance figure, and its impact on actual EPS performance will be assessed in future quarters.
0%CEO/CFO:“CME Group: 'Guidance for EPS is set at a low of $3.18 for Q2 2026.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Guidance for EPS is set at a low of $3.18 for Q2 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
24 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CME CME Group | +6.9 | full | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2712d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Clearing House Credit Facility Effective as of April 22, 2026, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. ("CME") entered into an amendment ("Amendment No. 11") to its 364-day multi-currency credit facility (the "364-Day Credit Facility") with Bank of America, N.A., in its capacity as Administrative Agent, Citibank, N.A., in its capacity as Collateral Agent and Collateral Monitoring Agent, and the banks party thereto. The 364-Day Credit Facility as amended by…
capital allocationneutralscore 50 - 2026-04-2217d agoItem 2.02
Results Of Operations and Financial Condition,” including the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of a press release of CME Group Inc. dated April 22, 2026, reporting…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 45
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.