CME Group (CME)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$281.29-0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put CME beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Financials is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve record revenue growth near $6.5B in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $6.5B vs $6.5B target.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 5% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 17% growth a year, above the roughly 7% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskCME's growth relies on achieving record revenue growth near $6.5B in FY26. Revenue guidance matches the target, indicating strong performance. Revenue grew 14% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. CME trades at 24× P/E versus a peer median of 12×, suggesting the market prices in more growth than forecast. The primary risk is the potential for a guidance cut, with a 13% miss probability. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch due to pressure on a primary pillar.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. CME is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 16 analysts currently covering CME (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CME in the last 4 months.
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Compare CME with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Financial Exchanges & Data — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put CME next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase average daily trading volume (ADV)
Record volumes support increased average daily trading volume objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $281.29
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $281.29.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Expand product offerings and market access
New product suite aligns with expansion of offerings.
Advances: Expand product offerings and market access
Integration expands product offerings and market access.
Advances: Expand product offerings and market access
Launch of zinc futures expands product offerings.
Advances: Expand product offerings and market access
First trades in zinc futures confirm new product launch.
Advances: Expand product offerings and market access
CME's role in crypto regulation enhances market access.
Advances: Increase average daily trading volume (ADV)
Increased trading activity can boost average daily trading volume.
Advances: Expand product offerings and market access
Expansion into AI compute aligns with product offerings objective.