COHR
Coherent Corp.NYSEInformation TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, COHR has a composite score of 4.6 and a signal label of "mixed." The company momentum score improved by 12.7 points, rising from -17.9 to -5.2. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor, with a high confidence level of 87.6%.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.80
- Slope (norm)0.44
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.53 → $1.62 (+6.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.4% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve revenue growthgrowthmixed65% progress
5/6: “Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between $1.91 billion and $2.05 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.46 billion in 2026-Q1 to $1.91 billion in 2026-Q4, indicating a positive trajectory. Management's focus on strategic partnerships and product expansion is delivering growth.
- 2.Maintain gross margin guidancecostbehind30% progress
5/6: “Gross margin percentage for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between 39.0% and 41.0%.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross margin guidance increased from 37% in 2025-Q4 to 39% in 2026-Q4, showing management's commitment to maintaining profitability. The trajectory is delivering as margins remain within the guided range.
- 3.Manage tax rate expectationsregulatorymixed33% progress
5/6: “Tax rate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between 18% and 20%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Tax rate guidance narrowed from 18%-22% in 2026-Q1 to 18%-20% in 2026-Q4, indicating management's focus on optimizing tax efficiency. The trajectory is delivering as the tax rate aligns with financial performance.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-31 | $0.88 – $1.00 | $0.95 | inside |
| 2023-03-31 | $0.75 – $0.90 | $0.58 | miss |
| 2023-06-30 | $0.33 – $0.43 | $0.41 | inside |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.53 – $0.69 | $0.74 | beat |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.75 – $0.95 | $0.91 | inside |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.81 – $1.01 | $1.00 | inside |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.93 – $1.13 | $1.16 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.28 – $1.48 | $0.00 | miss |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 74%; 252d 68%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −27%. Bad day move −7%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.14 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 47/100, beta 14/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 21
Company momentum rose by 12.7 points (from -17.9 to -5.2).
As of 2026-05-08, the company momentum score for COHR rose by 12.7 points, changing from -17.9 to -5.2. The overall signal label remains "mixed." The forward view indicates an unfavorable scenario if next-quarter guidance is cut, as it is currently new as of 2026-05-06. Additionally, there are unfavorable scenarios related to a potential reversal in rates and sector trends, while there are favorable scenarios if guidance is raised or if the information technology sector trend improves.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 75% of the last 8 guided quarters · -6.6% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on increasing revenue through strategic partnerships and product expansion.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.46 billion in 2026-Q1 to $1.91 billion in 2026-Q4, indicating a positive trajectory. Management's focus on strategic partnerships and product expansion is delivering growth.
65%CEO/CFO:“Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between $1.91 billion and $2.05 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between $1.70 billion and $1.84 billion.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between $1.56 billion and $1.70 billion.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between $1.46 billion and $1.60 billion.”
- #2
Maintain gross margin guidance
CostNew since 2026-05-04Ensure gross margins remain within the guided range to support profitability.
Watch →BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross margin guidance increased from 37% in 2025-Q4 to 39% in 2026-Q4, showing management's commitment to maintaining profitability. The trajectory is delivering as margins remain within the guided range.
30%CEO/CFO:“Gross margin percentage for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between 39.0% and 41.0%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (4)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Gross margin percentage for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between 38.5% and 40.5%.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Gross margin percentage for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between 38% and 40%.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Gross margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between 37.5% and 39.5%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Gross margin percentage for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 is expected to be between 37% and 39%.”
- #3
Manage tax rate expectations
RegulatoryNew since 2026-05-04Align tax rate expectations with financial performance to optimize tax efficiency.
Watch →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Tax rate guidance narrowed from 18%-22% in 2026-Q1 to 18%-20% in 2026-Q4, indicating management's focus on optimizing tax efficiency. The trajectory is delivering as the tax rate aligns with financial performance.
33%CEO/CFO:“Tax rate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between 18% and 20%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Tax rate for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between 18% and 20%.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Tax rate for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between 18% and 20%.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Tax rate for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be between 18% and 22%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
38 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COHR Coherent Corp. | +4.6 | full | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Coherent Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 ended March 31, 2026. A copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 75 - 2026-04-2810d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 27, 2026 (the “Transition Date”), Giovanni Barbarossa notified Coherent Corp. (the “Company”) of his intention to transition from his role as the Company’s Chief Strategy Officer, effective as of the Transition Date, and retire in September 2026. In connection with this transition, Dr. Barbarossa will serve as a Special Advisor to the Chie…
executive changeneutralscore 63 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. The Company’s press release, dated March 2, 2026, announcing the private placement contemplated by the Purchase Agreement and a collaboration between Coherent and NVIDIA under which NVIDIA has access to five additional Coherent product families related to co-packaged optics, enabling next-generation AI infrastructure is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in
mna activitypositivescore 11 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 3.02
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On March 2, 2026, Coherent Corp. (“Coherent” or the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with NVIDIA Corporation (“NVIDIA”), and Coherent completed the issuance and sale of 7,788,161 shares of the Company’s common stock, no par value (the “Shares”), pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, at a price of $256.80 per share for an aggregate purchase price of $2 billion in cash. The Shares were issued and sold to NV…
capital allocationnegativescore 11 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished pursuant to Item 9.01, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, the information in this
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.