Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-02 · fmp
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$136.50-9.55%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 5, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.65 → 9.67 EPS · FY ending May 2, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRDO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Disciplined capital allocation | A supporting condition in Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd's published investment case. The stated target is maintain disciplined allocation. | Intact | fails to announce any strategic acquisitions or capital allocation plans | Qualitative: Acquisition of DustPhotonics announced (Apr 2026) CRDO announced the acquisition of 100% of DustPhotonics Ltd. on April 13, 2026, confirming active strategic capital allocation. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-02 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 7, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth technology business with a growth-through-product-expansion and acquisition thesis, rather than a steady, lower-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and overall risk is high.
The evidence describes CRDO as cheap versus peers, while also rating its value as expensive, so the relative valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is close to neutral, and the model has low confidence; valuation has also risen recently, while the priced-in assessment says fragility is low and the setup is justified.
Over the multi-year view, management has stayed focused on product expansion, acquisitions, and profitability, and the evidence shows revenue and operating income rising through 2027-Q1. Near term, recent results are strong overall, but CRDO missed its most recent quarter, and the sector has also seen misses, which leaves execution risk despite a low stated miss probability.
The favorable case depends in part on rate cuts and stabilization among major technology companies, which could ease pressure on the sector. The unfavorable case is a material slowdown in economic growth from the current 2.1%, while CRDO’s own ability to sustain growth and profitability after its recent miss remains an important test.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business setup combines strong recent fundamentals and management progress with high risk, fragile earnings quality, and a mixed valuation signal. The long-term thesis remains intact, but depends on continued execution and a supportive technology and economic backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 quarters in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Management announced the DustPhotonics acquisition and related equity financing to support growth. This shows delivering on disciplined capital allocation focused on strategic acquisitions.
Operating income improvement | A supporting condition in Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd's published investment case. The stated target is >=121M. | Intact | falls below $100M by Q1 2027 | Operating income: $120.7M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=121M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 2, 2026120,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextManagement emphasized improving operating income in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 to 2027-Q1. Operating income increased from $26M to $121M over this period, indicating delivering on profitability improvements through operational efficiencies and scale. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Quarterly revenue growth | A primary condition in Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd's published investment case. The stated target is >=531M. | Under Pressure | falls below $500M in the current quarter | Revenue: $479.003M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=531M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 2, 2026479,003,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2027-Q1. Revenue increased significantly from $135M in 2025-Q3 to $479M in 2027-Q1, reflecting growth initiatives including the acquisition of DustPhotonics announced in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows delivering on growth through product expansion and acquisitions. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 5, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.65 → $9.67 · observed estimates
$3.85B → $3.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.65 | $3,854,585,091 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.65 | $3,854,582,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.65 | $3,854,582,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.65 | $3,854,582,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.65 | $3,854,582,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.65 | $3,854,582,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.65 | $3,854,582,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.67 | $3,860,636,786 | 12 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.