CSGP
CoStar GroupNASDAQReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CSGP has a composite score of 18.3, categorized as "mild favorable," with a high confidence level of 84.2. The score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 26.3 and a sector score of 16.1. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions related to rates, growth, labor, and inflation. The overall risk is labeled as elevated, with a total risk score of 54.8.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.02
- Slope (norm)0.78
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.29 (+5.5% / 30d). 12 raised, 2 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 12 maintained. 74% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 35.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue to $3.78B-$3.82B in 2026growthbehind14% progress
4/28: “The Company reaffirms revenue in the range of $3.78 billion to $3.82 billion for the full year of 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company has consistently reaffirmed its revenue guidance for 2026 in the range of $3.78 billion to $3.82 billion. Revenue for 2025-Q4 was $464.7 million, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the 2026 target. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $780M-$820M in 2026growthbehind14% progress
4/28: “The Company is increasing its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year of 2026 to a range of $780 million to $820 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company has increased its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 to $780 million to $820 million. Operating income for 2025-Q4 was $126.1 million, indicating a need for substantial improvement to meet the 2026 target. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
Guidance track record
Last 4 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | $0.31 – $0.32 | $0.33 | beat |
| 2024-03-31 | $0.06 – $0.07 | $0.10 | beat |
| 2024-06-30 | $0.09 – $0.10 | $0.15 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.15 – $0.16 | $0.22 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 39%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −66%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLRE) — 0.75 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 35/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 75/100, earnings vol —.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 4 guided quarters · 39.6% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue to $3.78B-$3.82B in 2026
GrowthCoStar Group aims to achieve revenue in the range of $3.78 billion to $3.82 billion for the full year of 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company has consistently reaffirmed its revenue guidance for 2026 in the range of $3.78 billion to $3.82 billion. Revenue for 2025-Q4 was $464.7 million, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the 2026 target. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
14%CEO/CFO:“The Company reaffirms revenue in the range of $3.78 billion to $3.82 billion for the full year of 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company reaffirms revenue in the range of $3.78 billion to $3.82 billion for the full year of 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company is affirming its full year guidance provided on January 7, 2026 of revenue in the range of $3.78 billion to $3.82 billion for the full year of 2026.”
- #2
Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $780M-$820M in 2026
GrowthCoStar Group aims to increase its Adjusted EBITDA to a range of $780 million to $820 million for the full year of 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company has increased its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 to $780 million to $820 million. Operating income for 2025-Q4 was $126.1 million, indicating a need for substantial improvement to meet the 2026 target. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
14%CEO/CFO:“The Company is increasing its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year of 2026 to a range of $780 million to $820 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company is increasing its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year of 2026 to a range of $780 million to $820 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company is affirming the guidance from our January 7, 2026 press release for Adjusted EBITDA to range from $740 million to $800 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CSGP CoStar Group | +18 | fair | elevated |
WELL Welltower | +7.9 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | +10 | full | low |
EQIX Equinix | +22 | fair | moderate |
AMT American Tower | +18 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If real_estate sector trend rises from +0.00 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-8.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If real_estate sector trend falls from +0.00 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.02
and the Press Release shall be considered “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any reports or filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), whether made before or after the date hereof, except as expressly set f…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 56
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.